Commodity Research Group (CRG) is an independent research consultancy specializing in base and precious metals, as well energy products. The Group provides research and general price analysis for these markets, along with advice to companies seeking to construct hedging strategies.
In this podcast, oil market experts Andrew Lebow and Jim Colburn discuss key fundamental forces driving oil prices in both the futures and options markets.
About Your Hosts
Andrew Lebow has been involved in the energy derivative area since 1980. He began his career with Shearson Lehman Brothers where he worked in the initial formulation and marketing of the NYMEX WTI crude contract in 1983 as well as the NYMEX gasoline contract in 1985.
Mr. Lebow has appeared before the State Government of Alaska as well as the State Department of Defense to discuss hedging techniques. Mr. Lebow is also well known as a market analyst and is quoted frequently in the financial press. He has appeared on television on CNBC, NBC, CNN, CBS, and PBS. Mr. Lebow holds a BA from Lafayette College and an MBA from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University
Jim Colburn is a futures and options professional with 30 years of wide ranging experience in commodity markets. For much of his career, at Man Financial (1989-2011) and Jefferies LLC (2012-2013), Mr. Colburn worked with major integrated oil companies, hedge funds, pension funds and other entities to develop market hedging and trading strategies.
He has conducted trading, hedging and risk management workshops in energy markets worldwide.
Mr. Colburn is a published author on options trading, hedging, market making and risk management. In 1986, while at the New York Mercantile Exchange, Mr. Colburn helped develop new markets in energy option contracts by educating the oil industry, banks, floor traders and brokers, worldwide.
Good morning. This is Jim Colburn of commodity research group. I’m with Andy Lebow, also commodity research group and we’re here with our October edition of energy markets. You can check out commodity research group at our website, commodity research group.com where we post our blog and our podcast. We’d also like to thank our friends at Ekt oil and gas training for hosting this podcast. You can check out their podcast and learning email@example.com
this podcast should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political, and market conditions, and is not intended to refer or endorse any particular trading system, strategy or recommendation. We’re not responsible for trading decisions taken by anyone, especially those not intended to listen. Information is not guaranteed to be accurate. This is not an offer to buy or sell any derivative. Today is October 3rd. And Andy, let’s, let’s get started with, uh, what’s been in the news, a ran, I was just to see, can you just kind of talk about the unfolding of expectations for Iranian exports, uh, over the years and then give us an idea of what your number, your x, your expectation is now.
Well, the, um, the key here, it has been that those expectations, Cim Ha have continued to increase, uh, from original thoughts. The original thoughts were because this was a unilateral move by the Trump administration that it really wouldn’t have any teeth and that Iran would probably lose, let’s say I said, I think the first numbers were okay, we only think this is going to be 0.3 to 0.5 million barrels a day of, uh, exports loss. Then the Trump administration came out of very firmly and said, you know, we’re expecting zero. We are expecting Riney and exports to go down to a, to zero and followed it up with some further sanctions. Awesome secondary sanctions on, uh, insurance and, uh, on frayed and financed, you know, I’m financing and then did a real arm twisting number on, uh, Iran’s clients, rants, buyers, um, to the point where the market was then looking at, all right, well it’s not, it’s clearly going to be more than half a million.
It could be, maybe it’s going to be up to a million. We will use it. We were at about 1,000,001, one a and then this last week or two, uh, some, some of the Chinese buyers are beginning or have said that they’re going to stop Iranian purchases, which is another 200,000. Furthermore, a, which gets the number may be up to like one, two, one, three. And I think now, uh, the market, you know, if one five is 1.5 million barrels a day, uh, is a number that’s, you know, being, being bandied are bandied about. We added another point too. So we’re around 1.3 uh, of losses versus, um, you know, the Iran had export at 2.6 million barrels a day of crude and condensate sets. And the first half of this year, uh, we think it’s one, three, but yeah, maybe, maybe it will be one five. The other thing that’s happening, uh, the EU is not making a lot of progress on negotiating with a ran to it to extend the chase CPOA. So I’m not sure if, um, you know, the EU clients or any, any barrels are going to go to the, uh, are going to go to the EU so that, that could be in play. Uh, and waivers have become very hard to come by by the Trump administration. So, um, they’ve actually done a pretty good job in, I’m moving the in, uh, what will you know, what will be enforcing these, uh,
these sanctions? Yeah. I was, uh, wondering what China was going to do because they thought maybe they’d want to sort of tweak the u s Tra, uh, the Trump administration by buying more Romanian crew but doesn’t look like that’s the case.
It’s possible. Yeah. It’s possible as things move on, you know, towards the later, towards the first quarter, see where they’re at, you know, in terms of, uh, you know, if there’s any linkage and the in the trade negotiations and, uh, what they buy from Iran or answer really important to the four, uh, China in their overall global strategy, global trade strategies. So, you know, we’ll, we’ll see. I think it’s, it’s clearly a pretty fluid situation, but you know, I, I think there’s, there’s no doubt it’s going to be at least a million barrels a day, you know, that that’s, I mean, you could probably take that to the bank. Uh, it’s already 800. So, you know, I’m thinking of one, two, one, three, is this the right number? But if it’s one five, I wouldn’t be surprised. And certainly I think Jim is the, as these numbers to start increasing, you know, where the market is. Certainly, you know, that’s part and parcel of the, of this over the rally that we’re seeing a of the last, uh, over the last few weeks and months, uh, since this was announced. And, uh, you know, in May.
So we had a recent okay meeting and, um, why don’t you just talk about what the, what we learned from that and will, what is, was the OPEC,
well, they’re, there already has been an OPEC response. Yeah. OPEC has increased productions since, since their June meeting that there are a, you know, if you take out or ran and Venezuela, the other producers are up 600,000 barrels a day, I think we’re probably going to see another, let’s say another half million barrels a day coming out of OPEC and goal is probably going to increase production. They’ve got some new fields coming on at the end of the year. Then of course the big player is, is Saudi Arabia. Uh, Saudis said today they were at 10, seven. You know, a lot of the, a lot of the, a lot of the reports, the Reuters number I think had them at 10, four, 10, five. They say they’re already up to 10, seven. And I think that, I think they probably have a little bit more to go, uh, from, uh, Saudi Arabia and the, the, the real, the big, you know, the big number certainly is going to be whether they can restart the neutral zone.
That’s another half million barrels a day. That’s shared fields between Saudi and Kuwait and they’ve been the, there’ve been, had some environmental issues and some disputes, but that, that’s going to be a big restart. And in fact been Saulman w was in Kuwait, uh, is in Kuwait right now talking about it. So that, that’s going to be a big news item. You think that the market May, I think it will, you know, they’re under a lot of prayer. The Saudis are clearly under a lot of pressure by the Trump administration to keep increased, but they already have, you know, they already have a, you know, they’re up. If they’re at 10, seven, it means they’re upset. You know, they were up 700,000 barrels a day. So they’re there. They are cranking, you know, they said they were going to go up a million, you know, earlier this year. And, um, you know what, if they restart the neutral zone, say they’re a 10, seven with another two 50 year out, there you go. You’re at a million.
Um, it’s in Saudi policy is interesting because, I mean, we talked about this for years when they want a high price, almost short term, but a lower price longterm, right? They don’t, they, you would think that because they, I mean, how do, how do you maximize your, uh, your barrels in the long run? And when you, when you look out and you see electric vehicles and green power, I mean it’s a small amount now, but it’s growing rapidly. Uh, you know, they have that transformation probably happens quicker at Iowa price versus a low oil price. And in the IPO they’re in or out. It just seems like they have a lot of, um, public policy issues that they’ve always had it continuous. It’s a difficult trying to wa walk this balance, maintaining a, a market share. And in terms of compared to other energy sources that kind of like, right. And
then the short term of course, you know, the short term and longterm fighting the, uh, she I Sunni battle, you know, that’s essential. That’s existential, right for the, for the uh, kingdom and as well they’re right. That’s totally existential. This is a winning that uh, winning that battle. I thought you were to talk about the battle with our current administration.
So He’s a cranking and we have a sort of a cranky administration, you know, keeps tweeting, you need more oil and um, you know, I think they will, I think they’re listening, you know.
Yeah. I think they are listing, um, you know, despite, and the Russians to are going to be increasing, uh, you know, are increasing production. They could probably, they probably have another hundred to 200 that they’re going to bring on over the next, uh, over the next few months. But you know, what’s key is this neutral zone. These neutral zone barrels aren’t coming on until first quarter. You know, if they do, come on, it won’t be til next year, you know, at first quarter or second quarter. And it’s going to take, they say it’s six to 12 months to get it restarted. You know, I think it could be less than that, but that brings us to the first quarter. Right?
Yeah. You know, I think, um, the IEA has a bills.
Yeah. And that’s, and that’s the, you know, and that, and that’s what’s, that’s where you’re at with this market. I think Jim, we, despite all the increase in production because of the loss of the Iranian barrels and the continuing loss of Venezuela in the U s not quite getting up. This is fast. We’re on, we’re on track, but you know, we’re going to draw stocks. How many, how many months in a row? We talked about this on the, on our podcast about this fourth quarter stock draw. Okay. You know, we know it and it’s going to be, it could be more than what we thought could be less than what we thought, but we’re going to draw, you know, let’s say half a million barrels a day to a million barrels a day. Okay. I think the market, I think we all know that, but like you said Jim, you go to the first quarter and the second quarter of next year and this is this a surplus of a half million to a billion barrels a day. And you know, at some point the market is going to get beyond, you know, get beyond the fourth quarter and it’s going to start looking at the first quarter in the second quarter, you know, and it’s going to be a, it’s not quite an abyss. It’s not on the best. I don’t think it’s the best, but it’s not a, it’s not a happy place.
Well yeah, exactly. You might have, we might put a little damper on this rally that we see going on. Right?
Yeah. I think, I think the market has discounted so much, you know, the, the, the stock draw now it’s, you know, it’s worrying about well what happens if Libya and Nigeria don’t come through? Um, right now they are coming through and you know, this cause fair capacities so tight, you know, another reason then it’s rally. Yeah. Certainly if something else goes wrong. Yeah. The market has, you know, could have some more offsite, but you know, for the time being nothing. Yeah. I can’t say nothing else is going to go wrong. Stuff to get go rock tomorrow on the smart thing. Right.
Yeah. Anything can happen. I just, I just want to take a little a side move to talk about the fun mark. The funds, I mean we um, as of Friday’s number, which is Tuesdays, Tuesday afternoons action, uh, the funds were getting adding to link, but they still look like that. A lot of capacity left. And I’m just wondering if the recent activity, which was mostly sharp move higher is brought them to capacity or you know, we don’t really know what that is, but you think they’re kind of getting tired of buying this market?
No, I, I think, well, I think Monday, the first day of the quarter, right. Every, all in let’s go. The market had a huge move on Monday. Right. You know, I think there was some pent up demand because Wti looking at these numbers, you know, had really come off. Well, I mean, we’re fifth, we’re 14 to one longs to short with a net of 330, 2000 longs. It’s been, you know, it’s been much more than that during the, uh, during the year. So there’s still, this is still plenty of capacity, uh, for them to get long for, I’m looking for the high, you know, looking for the high of the year. I think it was like 470,000, something like that.
Yeah. Yeah. You know, cause I, I had been talking, we’ve been talking about the tightness in the fourth quarter and we had seen any activity in the options world, a lot of the open interest in the DCE calls, they were there at the top, you know, the DCAT calls and brands. Um, uh, so, so is very highly anticipated and, uh, it’s, it’s unfolding and it’s happening. So obviously some of the fundamental news got more bullish, as you’ve mentioned earlier, but, um, you know, I was just up never surprised what happens with the, you know, this, this market is reacting nicely. And the piece that, you know, um, we talked about was that the funds had a more capacity to buy, which certainly could drive the market then who’s going to be an aggressive seller. On the other hand, when you, you know, you read everything, everything is bullish, you got to let this thing run itself out.
Yeah. I, I don’t know who’s going to be selling in the, in the front. I think the, uh, you know, the, the, uh, producers have probably been some selling here in the, in the back of the curve. You know, those, those are really good. They’re making, they’re making new highs too. I don’t know how aggressive they are, but I think that, you know,
I dropped a piece in our, and our blog a couple of days ago after Friday’s action talking about how option volume picked up. It’d be Wti that also Brent, you know, it was over 200,000, and that’s not a huge day, but it was off from where I had been a more calls and puts trading. Um, which you would expect. And, and I’m also with you, you wouldn’t expect is that the, uh, put open interest was going up more than the call open interest. So even in these rallies and, and a lot of it was, uh, like chunks of a November options, uh, being bought. So people looking for, you know, like a blow off top and having to come back. And then the last two days it’s pretty much been that similar to that, you know, put to call ratio volume has been about the same and you’re still seeing more puts increased in open interest and then calls now that that might be bullshit.
You say somebody’s, uh, on the call side it looks like people are, uh, as a market holder, there’s selling out the lower strike calls, say the 80s, and buying the upper strike calls. The number one option out there is, is the ds 100 call and Brenton, it’s around 50,000 contracts. So, uh, on a put side, as I mentioned, you’re buying a lot of, lot of chunks of a front front month puts being being bought. And that might be in Leu of selling the futures out. Right. Cause obviously we sell the futures and the market goes up. You know, you get, you have to get out, you get stopped out of, you have puts you buy puts and then you can withstand, uh, you know, you got longer staying power. So if you, if you, if you’re a buyer, um, so maybe that’s what’s going on. It’s not as an aggressive short position they’re putting on to stop this. Right. Yeah. That makes all the sense of the world. Um, so let’s, let’s move to the u s so we have some numbers came out today and um, maybe we can just go through them quickly and talk about, you know, we had a big building, crude oil, 8 million barrels up. Can you talk about just where we are in the, in the seasonality of um, refinery runs and um, crude demand and things like that?
Yeah. Crude stocks built by 8 million barrels. The, the street was looking for one and a half. We were looking, we were on the high side. We were, we were looking for a build of three and a half, and that was the most anyone was looking for. And it came in up eight, because turnarounds are now w where refiners take down their plants, uh, for maintenances. Uh, so now we have big turnarounds and we’re going to start seeing WTI built over the next, uh, you know, I think we’re going to see a steady one to 2 million barrel build over the next four or five weeks. Um, and you know, to a certain extent that that may be discounted. You know, we’ll see the market today didn’t care. It’s sold off, right. And then boom, it came right, it came right back. So, you know, it’s like every, well, it’s a book.
It’s in a bowl, it’s in a bowl run, right? It’s in this like bull channel and you know, it’s acting like a bull market made new highs and uh, you know, it’s not really, it doesn’t really care. I don’t think that much about, um, about the inventories, but, sorry, week number, right. It doesn’t care. We’re going to build. And um, you know, in November maybe, maybe we even out and start drawing a little bit. December you’re going to see a seasonal draw and then next year, you know, according to the CIA, you know, they’re looking for some big builts next year. So we’ll see if that, you know, if that comes to fruition. But you know, the, the, if you looked at these EIA numbers in the short term energy outlook, you know, they’re pretty fair. She’s looking out for 20, 20, 19. We’re not quite as high, but I low.
That’s what we’re also seeing these stock belts coming for next, for next year. So the market is responding. Right. And the other thing, you know, we had a build in Cushing, um, we’re going to keep, we’re gonna keep seeing Cushing stocks build because pad to refiners are, you know, that they’re now finally taking turnaround. So they would go nuts, gym. They were, they were out of the minds then. You know, it was unbelievable. You know, these pants and why wouldn’t you? Right? You get discounted domestic and Canadian crude. You crank it out in the margins are, you know, are tremendous. So, you know, and they, and their plants were all running. They didn’t, nothing broke. So I’ve like, it’s unbelievable. West of the Hudson River, I think this thing is you make hay when the sun shines. Right? Exactly, exactly. And they work. But now finally they’ve, you know, they’ve, they’ve lesson on the throttle, cause they gotta take these plants down to make sure that they don’t break this winter.
So you see, I mean, does that mean you’re looking at a heavy maintenance season? This time are pretty good. I mean, it’s going to go run. So going to the 16 five, now they’re going to go under 16. You know, I’m probably average 16 to I think in October or something like that and maybe, maybe a little bit lower. So it’s, it’s a good maintenance. He’s, and the other thing that’s going on with Cushing is that this new, um, well an expansion of the sunrise pipeline, which takes Permian, which takes, um, west Texas barrels. Uh, some of the, the, the Permian barrels into Cushing, uh, that the line fill I think began like in late September, October. And that is going to be about 400,000 barrels a day. I think three 80 is the name plate, um, edition. That’s pretty big, you know, when is that going to be fully, I think November 1st is the crank it.
So, um, you know, that that too is going to, is going to help to, uh, you know, rebuild these, these Cushing inventories and we’ve seen the, we’ve seen the, the um, Permian differentials, uh, narrow in expectations. Yeah. Next write an expectation of this. A pipeline like Midland is trading got into $6 on there. You know, that was like 17 to 18 on there earlier in the month. They got into $6 on the WTI and you know, maybe it’s eight on right now, more or less, probably going to weaken a little bit. But you know, that’s a big infrastructure that, you know, the Permian still stranded. But you know, this will help a little this a lot. 400 days. Not Bad.
I see. Um, oil production, uh, this week at 11.1. What’s, what’s your feeling on that number and going forward?
I think the, um, yeah, you know, these weeklies are the hard to follow because uh, the, they, they’re averaging to the hundreds chip, well it’s going to be 11 to or it’s going to stay at 11 one for the rest of October.
Well that’s, you know, the old same age. They macro economists, they say you have a sense of humor cause uh, you know, they use decimal points in their estimate. So it’s, it’s, I think what they’re saying is that we
call it that close. Right, right, right. So, uh, so they just keep it, you know, I think it’s going to be 11. It’s either going to be 11 one or 11 or 11 and December is either going to be 11, two or 11, 3 million barrels a day, but probably closer to a 11 two. And then next year, each quarter, you know, we’ll be up another two 50 a quarter and two 50 in the, in the second quarter maybe, you know, might not grow quite that much, but still that still are on the, or we’re still on the upward sloping curve.
Let’s just cover a gasoline and distillates. Um, you have been a perennial, you know, I say bull for any you like tend to like display, it’s over gasoline in terms of price appreciation.
Yeah. That hasn’t changed. Gasoline, this is important. Pad One gasoline, which was the northeast thesis, gasoline. It’s the highest ever for this time of year. So we are, you know, there, there’s some big maintenance has going on in um, pad one, you know, some of these bigger refineries, there aren’t all that many refineries and pad one and seemingly they’re all going down, you know, so it’s possible that we start, maybe we lose, you would think pad one stocks could draw a little, but it doesn’t matter because we’re so high on the northeast nationwide, you know, we’re also, we’re in great shape on gasoline, two days’ supply above the four year and where nothing really good about gasoline demand is soft of, you know, is unchanged. It’s going to stay on change. And I think it’s really, you know, it looks like us demand has uh, has uh, has plateaued and if pump prices go up, I mean they’re pretty, pretty, pretty subdued right now. But if they go up, that’s not going to help demand in the least shy. This is another interesting thing that that traffic volumes that this two months, this year, that traffic volumes have been negative relative to your year on year. So, and that hasn’t happened since 2014.
I’m going to do a counter cyclical trip to, I’m driving from New York to Austin, Texas, so I’m going to help out that gas demand and the miles driven and all that stuff again and back.
Well Jim, you could, you could report, you can report back on the, uh, the traffic on the US highways.
Definitely, definitely. And I’ll be going to, I’m going to be doing like a pad to tour, but I’ll be doing, it’s more of a city cities with good music tour basically, but I’ll, I will report it up, put it on my linkedin and on the blog. Okay. So, uh, let’s talk about prices. It’s tough call as we’re, as we’re, you know, breaking out of a range. Do you think, um, tell me what he’s saying about crude oil
first. I’m not the bullish here. I mean it’s, I think a lot is for discounted. I really do. And I think at some point the market is going to start looking ahead to, uh, you know, the first quarter. I don’t know when that is. You know, the market’s usually tell us, right, champ.
Yeah. Well, you know, you train after being in a business for a while, you train yourself to the more you get excited about a market, go the other way. So it means you’re reading everything I read is bullish bull as well as bullish. And uh, it’s hard to make a case for the bearish case, but I mean you’re, you kind of began to make one for the first quarter, but that’s a few months away,
so, right. It’s a few months away and then we’ll get to the point where the market will start looking, you know, a lot harder at that. And then, then there’s, you know, how much demand are we gonna lose beyond the seasonal, you know, in the first quarter we lose a million barrels a day seasonally. So that’s, you know, unless it’s a really brutal winter, then you know, what about, you know, are we going to lose? How much are we going to lose from emerging markets? You know, some of these bank guys to throwing numbers out like 100,000, 200,000, 300,000 because of the dollar and higher interest rates and price. Yeah. You know, and that that’s, that could start impacting the market as well. And that makes the stock build and the, you know, that makes the first border look even worse.
And so what, so you’re kind of thing, oh, here’s why, this is what I’m saying. This is what I think. I wouldn’t, not that I’d come in and sell it here and not have to today’s action. Would you have any ability of barrel bill? The market goes down at die, you know, and mark goes down and goes, right, right back off. You don’t sell that. But I think during the month, it wouldn’t, it wouldn’t shock me to see Wti get, um, into the lower seventies or maybe even have a six handle. It was, it wouldn’t, it wouldn’t, it wouldn’t stun me. Says Similarly Brent, uh, I think it could trade below, you know, in the high seventies. Um, I do think brenty AI is, it could widen further, um, because, because of the Cushing situation that we just talked about, right. Um,
I have to say we have it, as I mentioned before, we have seen some put buying in this November contract. Um, in it with a six handle and even even 70. So I think there’s some people that, uh, agree with you and, and, uh, are, are, you know, playing that and again, the idea of buying a put some market keeps going, you lose your premium and that’s it. So.
Right. And it isn’t as though, you know what files are watching
25. Yeah, that’s a slight bump up, but it’s a really subdued, it’s not, yeah.
Yeah. It’s not that expensive toy at 20. Not that it means anything. Cause he told me many times over the yellow tail over the decades that I’ve told you,
you know, Ku, Ku doesn’t go crazy and violent. It’s on an up when it’s going higher, usually does it when it’s going down. Right. And in fact, natural gas is the opposite. We’re seeing a rally and natural gas and a decent volatility sell around 37% yesterday, which is a big, you know, the, the, uh,
The crude vow was actually above natural gas fall for awhile and now it’s flipped. I mean it’s, I’m following December now, so December’s naturally higher and natural gas seasonally. But still the, the vol has moved up to 37%. So crew crew doesn’t tend to move in unless there’s like a Gulf war one where reached its all time high. It’s usually the bearish moves that bring out the spikes and volatility. So kind of makes sense. But even so 25% is quite a quite cheap
yeah. Ball with all that’s going on. It is. Yeah. I mean it is that to me it’s, it’s, it seems cheap and which is probably why the buying puts strategy, you know, if the market does start coming off hard. Right.
Well we’ve already seen people rolling what looks like, I can’t tell for sure, but it looks like you’ll see a downside put being so, or whenever they’re sold their boy. But a downside put sort of trading high volume and open interest going down and the higher strike put, uh, having high volume and oak is going up. And I, I assume just from my experience that that’s kind of a what I put by or we’ll do, you know, put seller will do it too. But I think that, I think it’s been an issue initiated by the foot put buyer, but, um, uh, so I think that somebody did it early and the saying it’s still believes in the trade, so. Right. You know, we’ll see.
Yeah. Well we’ll see. I mean October Shaviah a pretty interesting month and then where we’re heading to the November 4th deadline. But again, I think the market has discounted a lot of that. So, you know, I’m, I’m not, I’m pretty reluctant to, to follow this rally up here,
so you and I will be doing a little traveling, but I’m sure we’re going to be a checking in and, and watching this thing unfold. And um, I’ll meet up with you again in, uh, early November and we’ll, we’ll see how it turned out. Um, and I’m sure I’ll lead the podcast once again with some kind of comment. Like a lot has happened.
Oh, a whole lot in this market, but not as much as happened with that. That’s happens in Washington these days. Yes. Still a lot going on in the oil markets. One of the reasons I like following these markets is it gives you, it gives you solace from Friday. All of a sudden your market’s dragged into it. You’re on a tweet. Peck is on. It is on a presidential tweet. I can’t believe I just said that. I’m going to have to become a technician full time. Yeah. Anything else, sandy you want to add to this? Uh, October. What’s today? October 3rd form of a podcast. Before we sign off, I just wanted to let everybody know that they can reach me at a Lebow, a commodity research group.com and Jim at Jim, call j Cole burn a commodity research group.com. As Jim said in our introduction, you can find this on our website, www commodity research group.
Dot. Calm. We put out a monthly report, um, which will be available on our website soon. The October report will be available soon and we still have that on a subscription. It’s really good because it not only covers the oil markets for all mark, it’s written by, um, a lot of it’s written by Ed Meir, uh, an award winning analysts. They get, it’s like always number one, a number two on a copper and, uh, and base metals. So it’s, it’s a really good concise report, a written by, you know, a few veteran, a few of us, a few of us veterans, the, uh, you know, in, in the markets, you know, pretty, pretty, pretty good stuff. I think Andy, when I sat next to you for 23 years, uh, eating enough, man, we, we’ve referred to us as the, the two guys in the balcony of the muppets. It’s true. We got three right with that. Now we got three layers. Sounds good. Okay. All right. Thanks Andy. All right, thanks. Bye.