Commodity Research Group (CRG) is an independent research consultancy specializing in base and precious metals, as well energy products. The Group provides research and general price analysis for these markets, along with advice to companies seeking to construct hedging strategies.
In this podcast, oil market experts Andrew Lebow and Jim Colburn discuss key fundamental forces driving oil prices in both the futures and options markets.
About Your Hosts
Andrew Lebow has been involved in the energy derivative area since 1980. He began his career with Shearson Lehman Brothers where he worked in the initial formulation and marketing of the NYMEX WTI crude contract in 1983 as well as the NYMEX gasoline contract in 1985.
Mr. Lebow has appeared before the State Government of Alaska as well as the State Department of Defense to discuss hedging techniques. Mr. Lebow is also well known as a market analyst and is quoted frequently in the financial press. He has appeared on television on CNBC, NBC, CNN, CBS, and PBS. Mr. Lebow holds a BA from Lafayette College and an MBA from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University
Jim Colburn is a futures and options professional with 30 years of wide ranging experience in commodity markets. For much of his career, at Man Financial (1989-2011) and Jefferies LLC (2012-2013), Mr. Colburn worked with major integrated oil companies, hedge funds, pension funds and other entities to develop market hedging and trading strategies.
He has conducted trading, hedging and risk management workshops in energy markets worldwide.
Mr. Colburn is a published author on options trading, hedging, market making and risk management. In 1986, while at the New York Mercantile Exchange, Mr. Colburn helped develop new markets in energy option contracts by educating the oil industry, banks, floor traders and brokers, worldwide.
Good morning. This is Jim Colburn of commodity research group. I’m here with Andy Lebow also of commodity research group. We’re here to talk about energy markets along with Ed Meir. Andy and I founded commodity research group, which consults on various aspects of commodity markets. Check out our website, commodity research group.com where we post our blog and our podcast. We’d like to thank our friend Doug Stetzer of EKT interactive oil and gas training for hosting this podcast. You can check out his daily newsletter, podcast and learning email@example.com. Our disclaimer is, uh, uh, basically this podcast should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political market conditions and is not intended to a for or endorse any particular trading a system, a recommendation. We are not responsible for trading decisions taken by anyone, not intended to listen. And information is not guaranteed to be accurate. This is not an offer to buy or sell any derivative. Today is May 9th. Good morning, Andy. Lebow.
Good morning, Jim. Call Bart. Uh, let’s, let’s get
right into this. Um, uh, ran sanctions reimposed by our president. Um, go ahead. What do you think about that?
Well, I can’t say that it was a surprise, uh, to almost anyone watching the market and, uh, watching what the president has said over the last, uh, you know, it says for the election,
are you surprised at the market reaction? And it was a up I am,
I am surprised that, uh, you know, yesterday, prior to the announcement, the market started to come off pretty hard. I think it got down to about 67, 54 WTI and then since it’s just has rallied fairly sharply as we’re talking, it’s about 70, $71. And you know, I had thought that, uh, for at least to a large extent, uh, at least the decision to reimpose sanctions would have been discounted. It’s almost all we’ve been talking about for the last five or six weeks at least, if not longer. And a, I think a lot of this rally from 60 up to a, up to 70 was due in large part to the talk about the sanctions. Um, some attic, some geopolitical risk, add it to the market. And of course it’s Gemma’s. We talked about it in over the last, um, this, I guess this our fifth podcast of the year. You know, we’ve talked about improving fundamentals as well in the market, but I’m definitely surprised that, uh, you know, we continue to rally here. Yeah, I think a lot
during our last podcast, we were probably in the mid sixties and you thought the fundamentals certainly supported, uh, prices up there. And, um, I’ll take a quick second to a note that, you know, we had a flurry of, um, options trading yesterday as you might expect. Nothing, nothing record. It was about 350,000. The record was up around five 80 back in the OPEC meeting in November, 2016. But the, if you look at the, the, uh, the big strikes with open interest, you know, it’s, um, it was the June 60 put in, in WWE PTI that was a over 60,000 open interest. So I was a, well and above every other a strike out there. And then in brands it was the July 80 call. So, you know, that’s kind of uh, uh, uh, what you were looking at. People, people want to buy the market. I think they’re going into, Brent wanted to sell it. They were looking more closely at Wti and we’ll probably talk about some of the reasons why as we go along. But, um, so going forward, I mean in the news I’ve heard ranges from, you know, no change in supplies due to this, uh, action taken yesterday to a million barrels off the market, which would kind of be what happened last time and what we should discuss or, or where do you come out on, um, what you think might happen?
Well, either one of those lumbers could, could be right. I don’t think they will be right, but they certainly could be right. I don’t think on the upper end. I think that will be, I don’t see that at all. I just don’t see full compliance with the sanctions. I don’t think that, well first the wall, if we compare now that then, then the, uh, Obama administration had done a lot of petro diplomacy and uh, as well as rate, as well as diplomacy to get almost everybody on board with the, uh, with the sanctions. Now most of the buyers, in fact, all the buyers, it’s, none of them are on board with a reemphasis of sanctions. So politically I think it’s going to be somewhat difficult. And if you go by or by buyer, I think almost all of them are going to apply for a waiver. I think the number if you go through the math is probably going to be somewhere in the middle there, Jim, uh, between like 400 and 500 a day. Maybe a little less than that and maybe, maybe a little more than that. I think that’s going to be, um, I think that’s a good number to, to be working with, with, with, uh, how much risk is going to come off the market.
No, I saw that a treasury secretary said that, uh, he’s not expecting prices to go higher. And also there’s a comments from the Saudis and UAE saying they’re willing to boost exports to those statements, give you comfort that uh, uh, they’ll, they’ll meet whatever shortfall is out there.
Well, they, they do have capacity to increase production and, uh, we are of course coming to the time of, of crude burn for, uh, uh, where they increase demand, uh, for the Saudis increased demand for, for crude, uh, for air conditioning. So, you know, they may, they may raise production to keep exports steadied up. That wouldn’t be a, that wouldn’t be surprising, although the barrel’s won’t come off the market till till fourth quarter, so at the earliest. So they may do nothing here. Uh, and the UAE, there is definitely spare spare capacity within OPEC and they could increase production and still say that they’re, that OPEC is within its, uh, its steel. They OPEC itself at that November 16, meaning that you mentioned Jim, uh, pledged from 1.2 million barrel a they caught and they’ve delivered thanks to Venezuela’s problems. They’ve delivered 1.8 million barrels a day of cuts. So, you know, there’s definitely room for them to increase production as still say they’re complying with the deal.
Right. And, um, we’ll, do you think that’ll just happen or will he think it’ll build, discuss this and the next OPEC meeting in June?
I think they’ll discuss it at the next OPEC meeting and churn and um, maybe give some indication that that, you know, in November 4th is the, is the earliest that Iranian barrels or off the markets, they may start a increased production into the fourth or first quarter. But let’s also talk about let’s, let’s say Iran, um, production decline is, is uh, or export. The client is 400 a day or 500 a day yesterday, uh, in, in something that really wasn’t covered very well because the whole market was going crazy over the, over the Iranians decision, the EIA increased its, um, its estimate for us production by 400,000 barrels a day for next year. Big Amount. They had a hit a low, they were doing spin moves about, uh, you know, the Iranian decision and they miss the important piece of data.
Yeah. I think in that report, um, their monthly short term energy outlook, they showed a 12 million barrel production at the end of 2019.
Right? I mean, we’re intense seven now. Uh, um, you know, they’re looking at, yeah, 12 million for the half, for the fourth quarter of next year. They’re looking for, if you look at the first quarter of this year, I just have to have these, these numbers. It looks like 11.7 million barrels per day average. Uh, and we’re producing 10, seven now. So there’s a, there’s an extra million, there’s an incremental million from us producers. If that number’s right.
Well, let’s, let’s talk, let’s spend some time on that EIA monthly because there’s, there’s a lot of stuff in there. One of the reasons they mentioned their forecasts has been bumped up is because they also have forecasts at higher prices. So this is a response to the high price, but they’re also talking about these, um, potential, uh, or not potential. They’re expecting transportation constraints out in 2019 and they, they talk about the May 3rd, uh, uh, Wti Midland versus Brent being minus $17 and 69 cents. So what’s, what’s going on in, we’re, we’re producing, are we getting it out? We’re not getting out fast enough. What’s, what’s going?
No, no, no, we’re not getting it out fast enough. The, the WTI, um, the, the Midland differential to, to Wti, not, not to brand has been, I think it’s been down to minus 15, Jim. I mean, that’s really, that’s really cool. That’s really collapsed and, uh, you know, so there’s obviously a lot of, uh, what, what hedgers would call basis risks, uh, in, uh, the, the Midland, which is basically the Permian, the Permian barrels are, um, you know, it, it’s a Permian producer. You’re getting $15, so under the WTI. So yeah, prices are higher at, uh, you know, in the North Sea and
in Wti, but they’re, they’re not at the end Permian and, and, you know, maybe we won’t grow that quickly, you know, and, and, uh, 18 and 19. So that indicates that huge a basis is indicates that you’re, you’re using up your, you’re producing more than you can get to the Gulf coast, uh, for, for a use for, to run through a refinery and also export demand and Corpus Christi, I guess is where most of that goes. Right. Or use them or Houston. And then it’s, so the marginal barrel should be going to Cushing now, is that right? Yeah, if you can find the pipe, you know, the problem is there’s just not enough pipeline capacity and uh, you know, particularly to the, to the Gulf coast, it’s being built. It’s being built furiously, but you know, it’s not going to be ready to leave at the end of 18 or a or 19.
Yeah. I mean, the reason I’m focusing on this is because what I see in the spread option market, uh, um, is that the biggest open interests are on these, uh, flat. You know, the, the, um, the ability, if I buy a flat put, it means I’m looking for the market to go into contango. Yeah. Contango. So if, if we have this, you know, craze, if you look at the sort of the macro stuff that’s going on, I said, wow, we’re bullish. We’re up to $70. But then when you look at Wti itself, there are people putting on positions, um, either speculating and protecting against a market going into, um, uh, contango. So which seems kind of at odds with, uh, with what’s going on here, right? Yeah. I mean with the world, with the world markets, I guess also, uh, do we want to get into a gasoline right now? Because in was the EIA, uh, they’re, they’re, they’re talking about the crack values being a lowest since April, April, April gas cracks being as low as the April, 2011. I mean, we want to talk about gas man.
Well, yeah, again, well, this last week the guests, the man was, was pretty good, but you know, you look at what the EIA is expecting for the year and they’re, they’re about on change three even lower. And certainly as these crude prices go up, gasoline prices are, are quickly following the EIA is looking for like two 90 average this, uh, the summer for a regular gasoline. Then, you know, as we go higher, we’re, we’re getting closer to that, uh, to that $3 number. And it’s certainly, it’s certainly possible possible and it’s probable that, uh, we could see gasoline demand lower this, you know, for the, for the balance of your, uh, as, uh, as pump prices rise. Uh, and certainly, uh, you look at gasoline in Europe as we mentioned in the last podcast and the end in our monthly reports, uh, gasoline and Europe is long and I’m sure on this rally that we’re seeing right now, we’re going to start seeing some gasoline moved in, move into the US Atlantic coast.
Uh, no problem. I think the, you know, what, what’s happened, why gasoline has, has actually steadied relative to crude. It’s the, there’ve been some, um, the, there’ve been some refinery issues getting back from turnaround, which they’re almost always are. A refiners have been slow getting back to her to turn around. So at guessing production isn’t quite maximize, but the big diesel, it’s really, you know, we continue to draw a diesel stocks, you know, that’s where, that’s where the real bullishness is as we see as we’re into season and diesels and a premium to, uh, to gasoline. Um, it doesn’t happen that often. No diesel demand is going to be great. I mean, I think it’s going to be really strong, you know, so he had into the spring planting season is underway and certainly as we know from production, you know, so we know from a industrial as some of these industrial production numbers, mining and manufacturing is great, particularly mining, which is, you know, to a large extent is crew production and natural gas production. Diesel demand is, I think it’s going to be, it’s going to be really strong in that and the crack that these will crack really exploded today.
So that’s uh, so we had a cold April. Right. So even going back to norm, I mean, obviously they don’t need heating all anymore, but, um, you’re not, you’re not picking up a, you’re not being biased and your demand numbers because of a cold, um, uh, late winter or I say cold April using up more, you know the name. Yeah,
well it certainly did help, but just looking forward, I think that, uh, just slip the diesel demand is going to be a, it’s going to be strong just on mining, mining and manufacturing and the, and the global economy is still, uh, you know, it’s still pretty strong, which brings us to the, to a very important point champ. And that’s the, um, you know, the effect of high oil prices on, on the global economy.
Yeah. I was taught telling you, um, I was listening to a podcast, but with this economist Jim Hamilton, I put it on our blog, uh, commodity research group.com. You can check it out. And you know, one of his comments was something like 11 out of the last 13 recessions were led by, you know, a, an oil price increase. Right. So it still is important to the, to the world economy and there’s no question about it. So, um, at some point it doesn’t happen like a switch like everybody thinks, so, you know, we need a three, $4 a gallon or whatever it is. It’s, it happens gradually. I mean, I think you see, uh, we’re starting to see flagging demand and gasoline, but we’ll keep an eye on and I think some of the world now casts, um, we’re, we recently week or below where they had been, um, that may have been due to winter weather, but, um, I think something to keep an eye on if we start seeing this economy slow down. Um, so gasoline cracks, you know, you had, you had some great calls last last month. You were saying the same thing that, you know, you didn’t like gasoline, kind of like the diesel. Um, but don’t trade the heat, the gas spread because it is, it is, it more don’t, don’t short gasoline going into it is that you’re really though you won’t,
you know, everything’s crying out to be shorted on the crack. Uh, the, the guests versus crude. You really, it may not be the best, may not be the best trade out there. I think that equivalent
then options is a deep out of the money option you say, isn’t it? I don’t know where the market’s going, but I know we’re never getting to that point. And so you, so you know, instead of selling a few, you sell a bunch and then all of a sudden the market gets there.
Leah floods, thoughts sooner when you start saying it could ever get there. Yes.
Problem. Right there. Yes. You know what’s interesting since we just bumped into options here again, I mentioned that June 60 put, but if you look at on the call side, you open interests. It’s not, it’s not outrageous. There’s no, uh, there’s this, I mentioned that June 60 put 60,000, the biggest call is the DCE 80 called 30 2004 36 and so the DS 60 d 75, d 70 2018 they’ve been trading for a long time. But I’m just saying these a lot of times up a front month option will will take over as, as the lead, um, hasn’t happened. And it kind of tells you that, you know, people have been trading off that idea that a tightness is coming, you know, that the fundamentals are, are a strong, uh, but they’re going to be, they’re definitely going to be strong going out of 2018. I’m wondering if this price move is, is moving all that forward. It might be,
you know, one thing that’s one thing that’s very interesting. If you look at the, if you look at the structure, um, the front of the market is, at least on Wti and I’m Brent to the front of the market is softening.
You know, like if you take a look at June d, so that’s really June versus December, June 18 versus December, uh, 18, it’s really, it’s really coming. You know, it’s coming off really hard, but you look at like these 18, 19, it’s, it’s making new highs. It’s like six 76 80, or you know, it’s like 60, 65, 70 cents a month backward dated,
right? I mean it, I mean we talked about this. Do you still have expected strong demand in, you know, oil, uh, going forward? And then there’s that at some point people talk about this, this cap ex spending gap, we’re just gonna kind of run into that time where we don’t have the, uh, the projects coming forward. Like we usually have I think a great point, right? It’s a fatty boroughs. I think he talks about that up often. The IEA and also every, every seat, every producer in the world mentions that as well. Um, so if, you know, you could see why people might buy some calls going out to, to, uh, take advantage of, uh, of that idea. I’m just wondering if, um, you know, price rations use, if you were were up in the 70s, now all of a sudden we have a bad or a week, uh, gasoline season.
Maybe this market goes into the, you know, the second, the second part of the year already high. And, uh, they come off later. You don’t know that that could be, I, I, you know, I wonder, it’s 70 cents a month, you know, whether that backwardation it’s going to stay the strongest. That’s strong, you know, with expectations of, uh, you know, US production on the rise and all the things you just talked about on the, on the, on the demand side as well as the potential for, uh, you know, for Saudi and the UAE and maybe others may be Russia increase these increasing production. Of course, you know, for, for this a sphere, we still have Venice, Venice, soil or continues to just spiraled down, uh, in terms of production. And now Conoco Phillips has, has taken some inventory and in response has taking some inventory and put claims on, um, infrastructure.
Right. Which is not going to help the Venezuelan caught sending, that’s for sure. So, um, do you see that situation as continuing to deteriorate or level off? I mean, I guess I can’t expect, looks like it’s still deteriorating, has still hasn’t bottomed out yet. I don’t think so. Yeah. So that’s, uh, also supportive. So, um, we, we have, uh, the funds are very long still. I mean, it looks like some, maybe some liquid. The latest numbers we have are from Friday. Uh, see it CFTC numbers come out Friday for the previous Thursday, so previous Tuesday. So we’re talking about almost a week ago. Uh, that the numbers are good for a little over a week. Is that a week ago? Tuesday? So, but they’re very long. I mean, these guys, they have been pretty much long for a while and they’ve been right. They’ve been right. As we pointed out in our last podcast, they’ve been right.
I mean, at some point the, the take profits, I start liquidating. Maybe that’s forgetting the, maybe that’s beginning to happen. Uh, but the, you know, they’ve been long, but we’ve been saying they’ve been overbought. You know, the market’s been overbought basis, a fun position. But you know, it hasn’t, it keeps making, keeps making new highs. So, you know, what I find interesting on, on the seat CLT report, remember to traders report is the funds are long, the swap dealers are short and they’re representing the producers. The trade is begin, is it begun to even up, you know, that they are, um, you know, they were net short and now they’ve been buying it. They’ve been getting almost closer to flat. You know, one thing to watch may be if we start seeing the, um, you know, the trade start getting shorter, which may be an indication that uh, either more hedging activity is here or they’ve covered, covered some of the short positions.
I mean, it’s something that’s something that I find pretty interesting to watch is not only the money managers for what, what the trade is done. Yeah. I, you know, I’m just in my gut, I feel like there’s not been as much hedging as a normal and they, I think that people are probably, you know, having been in these commodity markets, the a producers, whether it’s corn, soy beans or oil or anything else, they’re eternally optimistic. And, uh, you know, I think in this case to be, it’d be less, you know, uh, sort of bearish hedging and going on. And maybe, I don’t know. I know the airlines got stung in a two fat and not only the 2008 move, but also the, uh, the, the brand tie, uh, falling apart. It’s hard to a hedge longterm, uh, jet fuel using Wti when it’s, you know, it was collapsing versus a grant. Um, anyway, I’m not sure if they got, if they’re back into the market and they’re the ones buying these long dated call us or not, but that, you know, that seems to be, maybe that’s, maybe we’re starting to flip around what we’re seeing more of that end user buying coming in. I don’t know.
Well, I think we probably are. Maybe that’s a, that’s a great point. Maybe that’s, that’s why we’re seeing the trade getting longer, longer, cause we know, we know airline, a headset that they could be buying today actually.
Yeah. It’s, it’s uh, hasn’t, I don’t want to say it always ends in tears, but, um, it hasn’t always been a fun thing to be an airline hedging in this, in this crazy market.
No, really. It really has. Unfortunately, users tend to be,
uh, tend to be late to the, to the game. So, um, yeah, I mean, that’s what we’ve seen over the last couple of weeks. Hey, this is a difficult market. There’s a lot of noise in it. Um, you know, the, the, uh, implied volatilities is a very, very well behaved. I mean, you’re looking at a front month, June of 27 and a half. That’s yesterday’s settle in July 25 two. That’s, you know, that’s below average long term, average up a little bit. But, um, you know, that’s, that’s kind of, you had a major announcement come out and those things, it’s kind of orderly, you know, it’s not, it’s not, uh, we’re not, we’re not, we don’t have these huge gaps going on when you’re a little bit, but not much at all. Right. So, um, you know, it’s like you said, it was, it should have been in the marketplace and they maybe, I think one of the analysts on a, um, one of the shows I was watching yesterday, uh, was talking about president Trump’s tone was really, really strong. And then he kind of was taken aback by that. And maybe that’s why people say, well, he really means that, you know, so I don’t know. We’ll see. It’s a lot of unfolding to happen.
Yeah. There’s a lot of twists and turns. I’m still to go. Um, but it is interesting that volatility has been,
as you mentioned, you know, it hasn’t spiked at all. No. It’s right here at 25% or, yeah. You know,
yeah. Talking about price volatility, you know, we’re not seeing, we’re seeing the movies yesterday obviously went down to 67 and a half in back up, but, um, you know, large these files up and under control here.
Yeah. And by the way, that a July 80 call I mentioned, um, it’s, it’s has 35,000 open interest roughly at, I just checked it this morning, I believe it was up around, uh, over around 80,000 contracts at one time. So, so, so a lot of, um, profit taking going on in there. Uh, I assume liquidation. So, um, that’s probably, we’ll see. I don’t know what’s going on today, but, uh, like I said, that’s, that’s the biggest in, in Brent options that I saw. I was 35,000. Okay. So what are we thinking Andy? Going, uh, what else we get? We covered a gasoline and we got pretty much everything. Let’s talk about prices going forward.
Well, I’m not, I’m not particularly the fundamentals still look pretty bullish. Uh, going forward, uh, even chill, let’s just talk about 2018 because it does look like we’re going to keep drawing stocks, uh, into the, into the second half. So I don’t, I don’t really see the market coming off that much. Alternatively. It’s, it’s hard to really, you know, given where we are now price wise, you know, it’s hard to get super bullish. I mean maybe brand has to go to $80, you know, the, I’ll fully the Saudis talking about it, you know, maybe that’s a, that’s a target. Um, you know, maybe Wti as the goal. Uh, how’s the ghost? Somewhat higher. But I, I guess if I had to know one thing you and I talked about earlier in the week, you know, what would you do from a trading perspective? I say, I might look at buying some puts. I think the market has, it doesn’t have, like I said, I’ll see a crapping out to like,
you know, the $60 number. Yeah. You buy the puts cause you have a limited risk way of getting bearish. And if you haven’t, if the high is not in a place and it starts roaring up some more, he at least, uh, you know, showing a tic for tic law as, as you go up, you can sleep a little better basically. Yeah. And, and if you miss the top, it may, you may actually catch it on the way down. Yeah. Well, I told her, I think last month I mentioned how I didn’t like buying the market because of how long I thought the funds were. And I just felt like, you know, if I, if I bought it, you know, again a month ago and, uh, I’d be the last one in and yeah, maybe you’d be right. But you know, I think more often you end up being wrong. So obviously the price went up more from last month, but, um, I think I feel the same way now. You know.
Yeah. I’m kind of with you on, I’m with you on that. And I kinda, you know, I take the back as we mentioned earlier, the backwardation looks, you know, pretty steep to me and a 18. I’m not sure I would, you know, I think it’s going to weaken backwardation cause we’re seeing June, we’ve seen the front weekend, so we’ll see. We’ll see if we roll up some,
I’d see how many, how many months we can roll that weakness. Um, the EIA mentioned a mid 2000, 19 more pipeline capacity coming online to transport, uh, a Permian barrels to the Gulf coast. So, you know, we’ll have to see if in fact that that pipeline, those pipelines are ready. And then number two is, uh, does, does production increased to meet the, you know, to Max out again? No. Right. So, because that will affect the, uh, the curves obviously. And also, you know, when you have these massive amounts of funds that have to roll, you know, they’re in the front front end, they have to roll each month. That puts pressure on the, uh, on the front end as well. So there’s, there’s sort of the, the idea of stranded assets in that Cushing, Oklahoma area, low price of Wti relative to everything else. And then you have this role, massive role of funds.
You could see people saying, well, you know, this, this front end spreads not gonna, it’s just not, it’s got a chance of going back, uh, going into contango again, right. Is in the Permian and she bounced in the Permian. Right. That’s right. Yeah. Fall, you could get it out of there, you know, get those trucks lined up. Right. You know, that’s the only way. Yup. Yup. Um, okay. So, uh, going forward, you, you mentioned just from your tone, it looks, it sounds like you would, your little friendly towards diesel, little no change there. Same thing, bullish on diesel and gasoline, relative gasoline bearish. She’s the weakest of the three. Share the, could the weakest of the three and then crude oil somewhere in the middle or crude. I think somewhere in the mental. Yep. Somewhere in the middle. Now give me, uh, uh, usually give me a $10 range of crew going forward.
So know I think you said 60, 70 last month. It’s just fruit, which is pretty good. Not Bad. Our last monthly we were looking at for I think 72 or 73 on the, on the high side for Wti. Yeah. Yeah. On the, on the um, you know, I’m brand 78, 79, then I, you know, 63, 73, 64, 74 something signed, you know, if I needed a $10 range, I think that’s what it would be. Tai. But as we’ve been mentioning, I think they have, I think when things settle, settle out, I think the market is going to pull back some once, once this craziness gets behind this if, if it does right. If it does. Okay. Anything else you want to add? And uh, the only thing I wanted to add that if you want to, uh, get in touch with us, our email address is, is a Lebow, a l e B o firstname.lastname@example.org.
And Jim’s is Jim j Cole Burn Cll, B U R email@example.com. Uh, and we’re hoping to do another podcast this week with a special guest and we’re going to discuss some of the issues in hedging and I’m sure we’ll be talking a lot about what’s going on in the Permian and basis risk. Uh, you know, how you handle what the Heteros are actually doing out in the market. So, uh, you know, I think that’s going to be a great podcast, so keep an eye out for that. Terrific. The other thing I’d say Andy is, and posting things on the blog. And one of my postings was on, uh, has hit a piece of history of, of the options market in 1988, where the, uh, after an OPEC meeting vol went from 50 down to 30 in a heartbeat. And, um, it, it blew out some traders from it, which was kind of weird for us because it was an implosion of volatility. I put that up, it got like over 10,000 hits. So I never let it heal. Who knew there was interest in Wti, uh, this archaic Wti option, volatility history. But Hey, we got those kinds of crazy people out there, right? And I am one of them.
Well, listen, it’s good to learn from the, from the past, because as we, as we just said, you never think these things can happen. And, uh, and you know, they, they either have happened or will happen. Oh my goodness. Very good. Okay. And let’s, uh, let’s stop it there all catch you next month. All right.