Barry Ritholz reports on an excellent Howard Marks letter to investors here:
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-01-13/pundits-facts-and-the-future
I like point number 3, but do read the whole thing…
3. Anyone who isn’t confused doesn’t really understand the situation: Forget the future; most people don’t understand the present. The world is complex, nuanced and filled with shades of gray. Most people have difficulty understanding the complexities of causation. Our tendency to oversimplify tricks most of us into believing we understand what is happening most of the time. We don’t.
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