Commodity Research Group (CRG) is an independent research consultancy specializing in base and precious metals, as well energy products. The Group provides research and general price analysis for these markets, along with advice to companies seeking to construct hedging strategies.
In this podcast, oil market experts Andrew Lebow and Jim Colburn discuss key fundamental forces driving oil prices in both the futures and options markets.
About Your Hosts
Andrew Lebow has been involved in the energy derivative area since 1980. He began his career with Shearson Lehman Brothers where he worked in the initial formulation and marketing of the NYMEX WTI crude contract in 1983 as well as the NYMEX gasoline contract in 1985.
Mr. Lebow has appeared before the State Government of Alaska as well as the State Department of Defense to discuss hedging techniques. Mr. Lebow is also well known as a market analyst and is quoted frequently in the financial press. He has appeared on television on CNBC, NBC, CNN, CBS, and PBS. Mr. Lebow holds a BA from Lafayette College and an MBA from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University
Jim Colburn is a futures and options professional with 30 years of wide ranging experience in commodity markets. For much of his career, at Man Financial (1989-2011) and Jefferies LLC (2012-2013), Mr. Colburn worked with major integrated oil companies, hedge funds, pension funds and other entities to develop market hedging and trading strategies.
He has conducted trading, hedging and risk management workshops in energy markets worldwide.
Mr. Colburn is a published author on options trading, hedging, market making and risk management. In 1986, while at the New York Mercantile Exchange, Mr. Colburn helped develop new markets in energy option contracts by educating the oil industry, banks, floor traders and brokers, worldwide.
This is Jim Colburn of Commodity Research Group.
I’m with Andy Lebow also of Commodity Research Group and we’re here to talk about energy markets.
To learn more about us, you can check out our website, www.commodityresearchgroup.com where we post our podcasts and blog. We’d like to thank our friends at EKT Interactive Oil and Gas Training for hosting this podcast. Check out their newsletters, podcasts, and learning modules at www.ektinteractive.com
This podcast should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political, and market conditions and is not intended to refer or to endorse any particular trading system, strategy or recommendation. We are not responsible for trading decisions taken by anyone. Information is not guaranteed to be accurate. This is not an offer to buy or sell any derivative.
Today is August 13th. It’s afternoon and I just heard the president talking to the press in the background, Andy, so whatever we say, uh, when we get off the market can be totally opposite.
Yeah. Good Morning Jim.
And hello to all our audience again. It’s a nice to be doing this, a monthly podcast.
We have as always a lot to talk about.
Yes we do. It, uh, the market is a kind of where it’s same place it’s been maybe a couple months ago, but oh, does it feel that way?
It definitely does not feel that way. It’s, it’s been a wandering journey to get to a 55 $56.
So Andy, why don’t we get right into this.
Um, the IAS monthly oil market report came out on Friday and um, they had a couple of interesting comments as usual and I just want to throw them by you and get your, uh, get your thoughts. So they were saying that the first half of demand was up 0.6 a million barrels a day and um, they have estimates for the, for the entire year at plus 1.1. Uh, which would mean it’s gotta be a heck of a lot of growth going forward to make that estimate.
If you look at the individual pieces, the quarterlies, a quarterly demand or the half yearly demand that they’re looking at a demand growth in the second half of a 1.7, 1.8 million barrels a day. That is a really big number. And, uh, frankly I, I don’t see demand growing quite that, uh, you know quite that robustly. I think they, they’re, uh, way overshooting on, uh, on demand and uh, you know, apparently so is the market. You know, I, I think the real number is going to be closer to mill 1,000,003 million four, something like that or maybe maybe even a million, a million a day. They are big. What they see and to a certain set, their right is, uh, there’s going to be, there’s going to be petrochemical demand increasing as a result of some of the new petrochemical plants globally. However, whether or not we see any growth on the, uh, on the petroleum products side, the transport demand and, uh, decent, what we will talk about these all Imo 20, 20, but, uh, certainly gasoline demand is, is flagging and I’m not sure we’re going to see that that big of an increase in petrochemical underlying petrochemical demand outside of the new, you know, the new plants.
Yeah. Um, another just a, not to pick on these guys, but one other comment they had in there was, uh, the outlook is fragile and the greater greater likelihood of a down there is a greater likelihood of a downward revision than an upward revision. And I’ve just kind of wondering why wouldn’t you put your estimate? Whereas if [inaudible] was there’s a 50, 50 estimate.
Yeah, exactly. You would think you’d come out with a, with the lower, lower number anyway. And uh, you know, traditionally, I shouldn’t say traditionally, but, uh, I think the market is definitely looking for them to revise demand downward for, uh, for second half, which will in turn revise the downward, the call on OPEC crude, um, et Cetera, et cetera. But yeah, it isn’t as though the market has, has really been looking for dynamic growthful all a year. You know, we’ve had these, well earlier in the year. Yes, well before the, uh, for the trade wars really, um, really worsened. Um, obviously we made highs in the near $74 for, uh, for brand earlier than a year. And then, um, you know, the, the trade war intensified and uh, the market sold off pretty pretty broadly. But I, I agree with the CIM. I, I think they should, they should be coming out with uh, lower numbers and they will, I’m sure subsequently we are going to see lower demand numbers from the IEA is um, is it complicating the uh, the effort, um, the fact that many bought ahead of, you know, the sanctions, you know, it was a back in May, you know, they, they seem like people bought ahead of those and maybe are just working off inventories. Now we’re buying less after the sanctions.
Is that possible? That’s messing up. Luckily, you know, we did see, we did see some, some surges from, uh, Indian China. India’s now, uh, is now slowed down based on their, um, you know, based on their latest crude important numbers. But yeah, those crude important numbers probably do reflect some of, uh, you know, not buying from Iran as the, as they go look for look for alternative sources. And you look at at OEC the inventories, uh, they, they grew, uh, by 50 million barrels in uh, in second quarter. I think third quarter will probably see inventories net draw. So Jim, your, your point is, is right on. I think there was a, I definitely think there was some and, and certainly within some of how the Mar, the roller coasts, their action in this market, uh, that may also, that may also reflect change, change in demand patterns.
So we have, um, you know, the news headlines of, uh, of the trade war and then the actual IMF, uh, downgraded their global, uh, um, GDP growth. Um, the shaves it by, you know, a 10th of a percentage point. Uh, what, what do you see for world demand going forward now? And you were saying, uh, I think that the, as I said, I think second half for, for next year, uh, for this year for 2019 is, is not, you know, I don’t see a 1.8. We downgraded our demand. You know, we, we were around one one and then won and now we’re at a 900,000 growth for uh, for 2019. We’ve, we’ve seen, uh, you know the, the been press reports of uh, 650,000 barrels a day increase from, from one of the, uh, merchant one of the merchant, uh, thought I think it was Traffi or veto. I’m not, I’m not sure. Uh, but they were talking about six, 650 day. I think that might be a little bit low cause cause there is going to be new petrochemical demand. So, uh, W we’re sort of sticking with the, uh, with the 900. Now w what that does, we still think that the, in third quarter we’re going to see a decent draw on, uh, on global inventories.
Um, the call on OPEC crude, if you look at the, the three big, you know, the big three of the IEA OPEC and the EIA is like 30.8 million barrels a day. I think that’s a little relative to an OPEC production number of, you know, let’s say 29, nine or 30, you know, I think 38 is at 30.8 is, is a little too high. I think it’s going to come in at, at something like 30 and a half. But that’s still, you know, we should be drawing stocks now and I think this rally to a certain extent, the rally we’re seeing today, you know, you know, I think, I think if you see WTI that down, they’re 50 relative to where we are in the third quarter. That to me is too low. Uh, looking ahead for the fourth, so I’m not, I think 50 basis WTI, right?
Like basis WTI. Yeah. I think 50 basis, wt idols and you know, doesn’t really make sense given where we are in the corner. And even in the fourth quarter, uh, it looks as though we’ll be balanced to, you know, maybe building a little drawing a little bit. Uh, it depends, it, we’ll see where the Saudis come out, uh, on their fourth quarter, fourth quarter production. Having said all that and talking about the demand, you know, the IMF, the trade wars where we are in, uh, in demand, it’s really, again, looking at WTI, it’s really hard to make a case outside of geopolitical upsets that the market’s gonna get much beyond, you know, the upper fifties to let’s say 60. Right. Which has been the I the range. So, you know, you look at a 50, 60 lumber and uh, you know, 50, low to 60 high gem. That makes sense given where their fundamentals are, you know, it makes sense. What doesn’t make sense. But I guess for you and me, you know, having watched these markets for, you know, 30 plus years is the, you know, the extreme violence that we’ve been moving between those in this range.
Yeah. I, you know, just to confirm what you’re saying. Um, when we had that sharp down move in, was it August 7th? I think earlier in the month we had a huge amount of volume trade and the option world and a sharp down day. And I thought what I found was interesting once again yet more puts than calls trade, but the call open interest was way above the put open interest in terms of increasing. So you can’t, you know, without interviewing every single person that’s participating, you don’t know for sure what’s going on. But in general it looked like people were using that declined to liquidate some put positions and put on some call positions. And I, to me, that looked a little bullish, which would go along with what you’re saying is that people don’t expect the market to stay or get below, you know, much more than what, where it had gone below 50 bucks.
Yeah. You remember where the, given the, the fundamentals, you know, they’re not bad enough to really, you know, to see the market really get much below 50. It’s not to say that it can’t go there. We know that it can buy anything and anything in the over 30 years, you know, I think seen, you know, everything, everything is possible. Yeah. And I also saw some, you know, this is only a couple of thousand contracts of, you know, but somebody bought a DCE 20, put for 20 for year 20, 20. So I’m, I don’t know. I don’t know. I, you know, the only thing I can think of is it’s a market maker who maybe had done some producer hedges and ended up with a short put position and they’re looking to hedge it. I don’t know. I hope, you know, you think about what has to happen for oil to get down to 20. I don’t know. I put that on our blog and, uh, I just, that the headline says a optimistic [inaudible] pessimist. So, yeah. The to get down to 20. Well, yeah, if we go into a, uh, you know, a rip roaring recession next year, um, negative growth and the, all the, all the markets start unraveling and everything goes to a, everything goes to one, right?
Yeah. Well, it’s correlations. Yeah.
Yeah. The collaborations, just everything’s, you know, Germany’s entire yield curve has gone negative and I am trying to think, would it, would anybody ever pay me to, to go long volatility? I’m waiting for that and that’s, that’s like negative. All right. I don’t know.
Uh, yeah, I, and that’s not to say, can’t get, you know, I guess it can get them down there and uh, yeah. If we do go into a horrible recession and u s production, you know, really comes through, you know, in a very big way next year and the sanctions are lifted from Iran, Venezuela comes back. I mean, there’s a lot that could get it there. Yeah. It’s hard to say. It’s hard to see it. This, you know, this moment in time. I think the range that we’re in is, is explicable.
So, um, getting, getting back to demand a little bit. Um, the, the IEA talked about, uh, you know, China up. This was just the for the first half, China up 0.5 India 0.1 u up 0.1. But the OEC D uh, was, is down for three consecutive quarters. And um, you know, we keep, we keep hearing about peak demand if they have they found peak demand or is that just
Jim? That’s a great, that’s really good point. I think it certainly, you know, given, given where we are and you know, the long, the long, long term cycle it, it certainly, it certainly is possible. I mean most of the growth again is going to, is going to be coming longterm out of, out of petrochemicals. You know, I don’t, I think gasoline demand, uh, it’s possible that, that that’s peaked and that OCD diesel is a, is another story because of the, the Imo 2020 and it’s still used, you know, for, for tracking shit will be used for, for shipping. You know, I, I think the electric vehicle story is, is one that’s going to develop later in the, in, you know, mid 2020s, late, late 2020s, but, um, you know, in terms of always c, d countries, you know, I, I, I don’t think gasoline demand is, is on a, on a growth projection, uh, you know, at all.
Yeah. We are, we also have to think down the road of, um, these restrictions in plastic bags, things like that. If that affects our petrochemical, uh, demand numbers going forward. And I don’t know when it reads, reaches a critical mass, uh, that could take also a little steam out of the, uh, demand growth. But again, were let’s talk about, let’s get back to today and what’s going on in the markets today. But, um, but you, do you want to, um, do you want to talk where, where do you want to head next? You want to stay on demand and get into a u s gas and us, uh, uh, let’s just talk about the u s for, for a little bit. Again, the the, for the first half of the year, the demand has been completely unimpressive. Uh, in terms of refined products like products, gasoline is, is going unchanged. Diesel’s up up a little bit, but so far less than forecasts we’re seeing, again, petrochemical demand has been okay, but us demand for the first half of the year. What was unchanged then the, the EIA is forecasting similar to the IAEA. The AA of course is that is the, uh, does the u s government, the uh, EIA is forecasting some really big numbers for the second half of the second half of the, of this year. I mean, surprisingly big numbers, you know, pretty big numbers. For instance, uh, if you look at the monthly breakouts, uh, they’re, they’re saying that because of the, to a certain extent because of diesel, but just looking at December 19, I think this is going to be an 800,000 barrel a day increase demand from a year to year.
Because during the month of December, similarly in November, they think this is going to be a 400,000 barrels of barrel a day increase. And October a one 50, so fourth quarter, Jim, they’re looking at numbers that, you know, I just don’t, after being unchanged for the first half, you know, and we’re going to be up 800,000 in, uh, in December. I don’t, I don’t see that. I don’t see that at all. And again, the, the, that that’s FFA is carrying the, is um, carrying the water there. You know, it’s, it’s petrochemical demand. They think that that’s going to be, don’t you think that’ll be the 800 a day? That’s gonna revise. That’s going to be revised downwards. I just don’t see that.
Yeah. They both have, the IEA for 2020 is looking for an increase of 1.3 and they sank the EIS 1.4. Yeah, that’s globally. I’m just talking about. Yeah. I’m sorry, hold that. I’m just talking about us. The man, the line, our government is looking for an 800,000 barrel a day increase in the month of December versus December of 18. That’s implausible. I mean, it’s completely implausible. That’s a big number. A hundred a day, right? Yup. Yeah. It’s not going to happen. So that’ll be, you know, that’s going to be revised. That’s sort of fictional, you know, that’ll, that’ll be revised.
Just the market it, even though these numbers are coming out by these monthly reports, the market has that is not believing it either. Right. They’re more on what you’re saying, right. If they believed that the market would be closer to 60, and maybe, you know, maybe above the, probably above 60, if it really had a lot of faith that you know, that the man was going to be up 1000001.8 in the, uh, in the second half. I don’t, I don’t think they do. The reason, you know, it’s definitely one of the reasons that, uh, one of the reasons that chief reason that despite the loss of basically the loss of Venezuela and Iran and Iran from global markets and the, uh, production cuts from, uh, OPEC plus, you know, Pec and non OPEC, no, the market has, and the global geopolitical threat out of the Strait of Hormuz, the market has not gone. You know, the market’s not 10 or $15 higher.
Right. Right. Well, it is. Do you have a good number on how much oil China is buying from Iran? Huh?
No, I know know you have all these like one thing that, you know, what things are believable that has changed in just the last few years. There are all these shift trackers, right on. Even the shift trackers, you know, they’re, they’re coming out from like, you know, a hundred a day to Iran exports or a hundred a day to run. Exports are 500 a day. You know, I, I suspect China is buying from Iran. I have no idea what the, you know, what the number is. But you know, I think they’re probably hundreds of thousands of barrels a day.
That’s a good, that’s a good answer, right? I mean, I’ve seen 100 to maybe up to 400,000 a day. So who knows.
So, you know, and, and somebody was shooting, I read something where somebody was saying that China starts buying from Iran. You know, the market’s going to go down to a, what was it, 30 30 hours. Yeah. We’re like, wait a sec. How could that be? You know, cause the most they’d been buying from neuron was like 700 a day or 800 a day. So if they buy another 300, you know the market’s going down $20. C’Mon. Well answer to that is no. Yeah, I guess it could happen.
It’s a good headline though. I enjoy stuff. I enjoy [inaudible]
I know you love stuff like that, right? We all love stuff like that. I think I was born long bow neck on the line. What is he talking about? How could that be? Sometimes they’re even right. I don’t think that three or 400 a day is going to make, uh, you know, it’s going to make that big of a difference.
So let’s, let’s talk about distal. It’s okay. Let’s talk about those thoughts. We didn’t mention we have this Philadelphia refinery shut down and yet we still have no problem making distillate supply. I mean is, I mean it was probably a gap there, making gasoline more than anything. But yeah, both the, both like products and this is a real problem. That could be a real problem here in the, um, in the u s because we just went up, you know, runs finally. Yeah. How many months this year we’ve been talking about when are refiners going to get their act together. Right. Then finally, did you know that even with Philly loud, the produced 17.7 7 million barrels a day, uh, which is a pretty, you know, pretty high. I don’t know if it’s a record or not. I didn’t, I didn’t check but it’s, it’s gotta be close.
That’s over a million where it was, right, right. I mean, yeah, we went up at like 800,000 last week. So yeah, I think, I think those numbers are going to be pretty strong here over the, over the next few weeks before we go and before we go into turnaround. So what does that mean? It means we’re making, you know, we’re going to make a lot of life products. We’re going to make the diesel, what was it, June or July was the highest. Uh, July.
Yeah, July. Um, they have record a production of this lets and then, um, highest yield as well. 29.6 record for July.
Yeah. It’s going to match your time levels. Right. And this is going to continue through August and into September. So right now diesel is in pretty good shape. You know, it’s okay. It’s a, the inventories are 137 million barrels. The four year average is 144 million they supply right now are 35.3 versus 36.7. So it’s okay. But you know, there’s danger there. There’s definitely danger that we make that we make too much like the whole globally, we make too much anticipating this huge increase in uh, demand for, um, light software for lighter fuel for the, um, you know, for the sh the change in shipping specs. And um, so, so that’s something that, you know, obviously we’re, we’re all gonna watch pretty carefully. Diesel stocks have just increased by 8 million barrels in the last few weeks. So, you know, diesel, and it wouldn’t be the first time in our long and somewhat storied careers, Mr Colburn, that refiners have messed up on making too much. They should have a demand surge. Yeah.
You eat, you don’t want, there’s no, uh, there’s no gasoline distillate spread clay that works seasonally. Another way to say that, which, what’s interesting to me, sorry, go ahead. I was going to move away from this lit. Okay. You know, in the last couple of days has been a huge, uh, volumes in, in spread options and particularly the OC Novi, Novi DCE in Dece Jan plus 50 cent call, there’s been 10 to 15,000 on each one of those strikes. And, uh, yes, every buyer has a seller. But let’s, let’s just say that it was, it was initiated by the buyer. What do you think that play is about? And it’s, and it’s a, let’s say it’s a speculative play.
Yeah. And that’s, it has to, um, definitely do with some of the new pipeline capacity that’s uh, that’s coming, coming on board out of, uh, out of the Permian Basin into, uh, into Euston. The cactus to pipeline just, just started. And that’s like a, I think it’s 800 a day and apparently one of the shippers just, just put in 300, 300,000 a day. So, uh, I think that’s what, yeah, the, the, the, and I don’t know why, you know, we know this capacity is calming, but yeah, we’re also seeing the differentials move pretty good. We’re seeing the, um, Permian crude is now trading at a premium too. WTI. And you, you’ll remember that was that a PR PR light Permian is trading at a, at a premium. Now you all remember that was a, at a big discount. Um, and you, you spend, has gotten cheap relative to, uh, relative to Cushing. So, you know, if the marginal barrel is not going to go to Cushing from the Permian and moves to a Euston, you know, obviously that’s going to be, that should be supported for um, you know, the front of the front of the curve.
Yeah. So that, that um, those spreads are trading, you know, let’s say average around 34 cents and it’s a plus 50 courses, you know, it’s not, and it has moved up. I mean that spread has moved up. I that moved up with the, uh, with the refinery runs moving higher as well. Refinery runs, but you don’t, you don’t see like have you, if you look at a, say a dusty piece, these 19, these 20 spread or a Gen a 20 Jan 21 spread, you know, you’re, you’re closer to 20 cents a month, so you don’t, it’s not [inaudible] next year. It doesn’t seem to have any, you know, it’s Kinda hasn’t moved in. I Dunno, maybe it has it, it doesn’t seem like it’s a, it’s there yet. As far as looking at up major strokes.
Cool. Well, you know, you’re going to get production is expected to grow. Right. I think that’s why you can’t get, you know, the, the, the back hasn’t gotten that exciting. But yeah, what has been exciting is that even though we just dropped like 50 million barrels on, uh, inventories on crude inventories, the curve got whacked. We should show, you know, you’re like, Oh man, you know, how is the curve getting whack? No getting weak when, you know, we’re drawing this much crude. It should be the opposite. But obviously, you know, obviously it had already anticipated some of these draws, I guess.
Yeah. Well it has been waiting for a while, but yeah, just to quickly move over to us, uh, oil production looks like, um, the eas ratcheting down, well, the, this is where the growth is not as intense as it was. So, so basically they’re saying, ah, we’ve been growing expect to grow 50,000 barrels a month going forward. And it had been 100,000 from say, August of 18th, of July of 19.
Right, right. Um, yeah, I mean, they’ve definitely revised downward. Their, uh, you know, their production expects, I think based on some of the really downbeat stuff that’s coming out of the, you know, coming out of the producers on, uh, you know, some of these father-child, these father-child wells have not been coming, you know, aren’t producing quite as much as, uh, what, what, uh, some of these producers have had expected. And uh, you know, the, they’re not, you know, they, they’d been a lot of them, a lot of the independent producers have been more and more, have been more and more downbeat. So, uh, I think the, the EIS is taking a cue from them. However, even with that, you know, right now we’re producing 12.3 million barrels a day, I think on the last weekly. So they’re looking at next May and June they say is going to be 13.2. So there’s still saying that within a year we’re going to be up 900,000 barrels a day.
Yeah. They’re there year on year estimate is plus 1,000,012. They’re look over 12.3 for 2019 13.3 for 2020. So, yeah, there’s still up a million, right? Yeah. A million barrels a day, you know, we know runs aren’t going to go up, you know, aren’t going to go up. All that can’t go up all that much cause we’re not building, you know, we’re building some added capacity, but nothing like that. Right. Inputs will go down and exports have to go up. So, um, you know, and then next year should be pretty interesting. A to see whether or not we’re going to make that, you know, make those big increases and be, whether there’s enough export capacity to handle it, to handle getting rid of some of that.
Um, Andy, it looks like if I take your chat overall, it looks like you’re still, despite all the craziness you looking at a market that’s relatively in balance, it’s not gonna collapsed. See, below this and these ivy, we said anything can happen, but maybe below 50 and not, you’re not too excited about it getting above 60, because I say, is that my son at right.
You know, w again, the Saudis, you know, their, their sweet spot, what they’d love is they’ve got, now they’re at, now they provide the, the IPO for Aramco. So, you know, they would love to see brand with a seven handle and they would, you know, that they were going, they were so happy, I’m sure earlier in the year when Brent was trading 74 and then they got undermined by, uh, you know, Trump, Trump, China and uh, you know, so some the slug, you know, the general slow down, but you know, they’d have to cut production severely, I think to get this, to get this up, to get WTI up to up to, you know, 65 to 70. And I, um, it doesn’t look like they’re going to do that. They aren’t going to cut production. It’s unclear as to what the numbers yet there they are under their agreements by, by a bunch. Right. 700,000 or so.
Yeah. Yeah. By a lot. And I’m not saying you’re going to get exports under 7 million barrels a day. So I’m thinking that’s another three or 400,000 barrels the day cod, which will help, I mean, it will help keep that. That’s why it’s, you know, then that that should help. And we’ll see where, where the other OPEC producers come in and what Russia, you know, the Russians just, you know, they, they lost a lot of production when the, their, uh, pipeline to Europe was contaminated. So we’ll see where they, um, you know, that will they come out at, um, so I, yeah, gem, it’s, it’s think 50, 60 years, you know, looks, looks right. So the, um, basis, WTI, you know, the other thing that we just want one thing that getting back to differentials. Yeah. The, the brand t I is collapsed. Uh, not glasses really rallied, you know, with, with the anticipation that Cushing, you know, that it’s been more on the WTI side. But, um, Brent too, because there has been an overhang in a Nigerian crude, which I think will clear up pretty quickly. Yeah. It’s pressured the front end of the, of the a branch mark and, and, and we’ve seen a big rally on uh, on [inaudible] I think, I think that’s going to weekend actually. I think WTI is going to weaken relative to brand. Um, you know, as we get these, as we get some more production cuts in Nigeria and Nigerian light, uh, clears up, but we’ll see something to watch. Um, I’ll just one more thing in the options world continues the, the high of the, for volatility, the high was when we came into this, into this year, uh, January 2nd, around 53%. The low was in April down to around 22%. And a Friday settlement was 32 to, uh, I think we, I think we closed maybe a little bit below that yesterday. And um, historical volume, the historical volatility’s up around 40. So we’re, so we’re trading the, the implied is below a historical that happens. It’s, you know, it means the, the market’s moving around more than what the option traders are thinking it’s going to do forward, you know, going forward. So we’ll see if this market calms down a little bit or not. But it has been, again, it’s one of those markets where you look back and you’re in the same place you were few months ago. What you, you then on this, uh, you know what’s, what’s the, uh, Coney Island rollercoaster?
Well, yeah, I found your bolt. I’m like, that had been on one in this crazy roller coaster.
Yeah. So, anything else you want to say before we wrap it up?
No, I want, I guess again, if you want to get a hold of either one of us, hit me up at, at firstname.lastname@example.org or email@example.com. Our website is www.commodityresearchgroup.com and Jim, as always, it’s been a pleasure talking to you.
Sounds good. Andy, I’ll talk to you next month.