Fed Doves Still Have the Upper Hand for March, Tim Duy

Tim Duy lays out his views on the Fed, March meeting:

http://economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/2016/02/fed-doves-still-have-the-upper-hand-for-march.html

Here is his summary (but read the whole thing):
“Bottom Line: Inflation concerns are not likely to prompt a the Fed to hike rates in March. Financial market issues will dominate; like it or not, the Fed cannot separate the financial system from the real economy. The former is signaling it requires a looser policy stance to compensate for the stronger dollar. It would be tempting fate to ignore that signal. Be wary, however, of a hawkish message sent through the statement.”

And, I think bonds look very toppy, but Tim cautions:
“It is worth pointing out at this juncture that shorting the long end (once thought a no brainer) has been something of a widowmaker trade. Just like it has been for Japanese government bonds.”