Julian Lee at Bloomberg discusses a recent divergence between the EIA’ monthly gasoline demand (lagged) and weekly estimates (current) here: http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-07-03/is-america-s-oil-thirst-just-an-illusion
Here is the chart:
Perhaps demand is not as robust as we think? Again, from Lee:
“So with the supply-side dynamics offering less of a prop to the crude price, more weight is being placed on demand. Yet analysts are becoming more pessimistic. Barclays has reduced its forecast of global demand growth this year to 1.1 million barrels a day from 1.2 million, after cutting its economic growth expectations because of the U.K. decision to leave the EU.Last month, the World Bank lowered its forecast of global GDP growth in 2016 to 2.4 percent from 2.9 percent — and that was before Brexit. With all this in mind, it’s natural to look at the EIA’s monthly U.S. data and wonder about the crude rally’s robustness.”
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