Q4 GDP Forecasts… Calculated Risk – Commodity Research Group

December 15, 2017 by Jim Colburn Leave a Comment

Bill McBride at Calculated Risk summarizes 4Q GDP expectations:

“From Merrill Lynch:
The strong retail sales data provided a 0.3pp boost to our 4Q GDP tracking estimate, bringing it up to 2.4%.

From the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2017 is 3.3 percent on December 14, up from 2.9 percent on December 8. The forecast of fourth-quarter real consumer spending growth increased from 2.5 percent to 3.2 percent after [the] Consumer Price Index report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and [the] retail sales release from the U.S. Census Bureau.

From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 4.0% for 2017:Q4 and 3.1% for 2018:Q1.

CR Note: It looks likely that GDP will be over 3% again in Q4.”

Commodity Research Group (CRG), founded by veteran analyst Edward Meir, is an independent research consultancy specializing in base and precious metals, as well energy products. The Group provides research and general price analysis for these markets, along with advice to companies seeking to construct commodity hedging strategies.

Our associates bring decades of experience to the table, as they seek to help our clients understand the markets. CRG will distill the myriad of pricing variables mentioned above into coherent research that is to-the-point and tailored to a clients hedging or pricing needs. In addition, CRG is available for consulting assignments and speaking engagements. CRG does not manage money or trade for itself.

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