Inflation, GDP update… – Commodity Research Group

June 17, 2016 by Jim Colburn Leave a Comment

From Calculated Risk, here are a few measures of inflation:

While the core CPI is within the Fed’s target range, the core PCE is not… Current quarter GDP growth estimates from the Atlanta Fed are now +2.8%, as pictured here:

Based on these two charts alone, there is reason supporting the Fed to raise rates (CPI, good GDP growth expected) or to lower them (PCE price measure, GDP needs to be +3 to get back to long term trend), which, I guess, is why the market continues to obsess over a 25 basis point move…

Commodity Research Group (CRG), founded by veteran analyst Edward Meir, is an independent research consultancy specializing in base and precious metals, as well energy products. The Group provides research and general price analysis for these markets, along with advice to companies seeking to construct commodity hedging strategies.

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