From Alex Kimani, at the excellent OilPrice.com, here:
”In its latest commodity update dated Feb. 1, Standard Chartered says a surge in U.S. oil output in Q4-2021 has gone largely unnoticed by the oil market and oil analysts.
StanChart notes that in October 2021, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast that U.S. oil liquids supply (excluding refinery processing gains) would be 17.86 million barrels per day (mb/d) the following month. However, the analysts estimate (using revised data published in the EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly’ PSM’ on 31 January) that U.S. oil supply actually averaged 18.795mb/d in November, a m/m increase of 352 thousand barrels per day (kb/d). That’s a good 935kb/d higher than the above EIA forecast and just 375kb/d (1.96%) below January 2020’s all-time high.
The U.S. added over 900kb/d to supply in H2-2021, with only Saudi Arabia adding more.
StanChart says the surge in U.S. production is evident in the latest set of earnings reports by oil companies, with 2.018mb/d of Q4 oil liquids output having been reported so far, a q/q increase of 98kb/d (5.1%). Company guidance suggests that the surge is likely to continue, in particular by Big Oil with ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) saying its target is to increase its Permian output by 25% while Chevron (NYSE:CVX) has projected full-year growth of 10% for its Permian output for a similar period.”
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