From the IEA’s Oil Market Report summary:
“The IEA estimates that OPEC production in January was 32.1 mb/d and that the cuts achieved a record initial compliance rate of 90%, with some producers, notably Saudi Arabia, appearing to cut by more than required.”
“In 2017, assuming normal weather conditions we expect demand to grow by 1.4 mb/d, an increase of 0.1 mb/d from the last Report.”
“…if the January level of compliance is maintained, the difference between global demand and supply implies a stock draw of 0.6 mb/d. It should be remembered, though, that this stock draw is from a great height. OECD stocks of crude and products have fallen for five consecutive months and in 4Q16 they drew by nearly 800 kb/d. At the end of the year they were still 286 mb above the five-year average level and by the end of 1H17 they will remain significantly above average levels.”
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