The data dependent GDPNow forecast is in free fall:
“The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2016 is 1.9 percent on October 14, down from 2.1 percent on October 7. The forecast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth fell from 2.9 percent to 2.6 percent after this morning’s retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau.”
https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1
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