Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast declines after better than expected jobs report…

December 9, 2017 by Jim Colburn Leave a Comment

Today’s better than expected jobs report had a dampening effect on the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now:

”A latest forecast: 2.9 percent — December 8, 2017

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2017 is 2.9 percent on December 8, down from 3.2 percent on December 5. The forecasts of real consumer spending growth and real private fixed-investment growth declined from 2.8 percent and 8.1 percent, respectively, to 2.5 percent and 7.0 percent, respectively, after this morning’s employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The model’s estimate of the dynamic factor for November—normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1 and used to forecast the yet-to-be released monthly GDP source data—declined from 1.13 to 0.47 after the report.”

However, the NY Fed’s GDP nowcast remains robust at +3.92:

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