Economic Bump Looking Less Likely… NYTimes

May 27, 2017 by Jim Colburn Leave a Comment

The underrated NYTimes business section lays out US GDP possibilities here: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/26/business/economy/economic-growth-gross-domestic-product.html

Economist Diane Swonk is quoted:

““We’re still on track for a 2 percent growth economy, give or take a little, but not a 3 percent economy,” said Diane Swonk, a veteran independent economist in Chicago. “It may not sound like much, but the difference is important.”

In a $17 trillion economy, it is a difference of $170 billion per year, which has major implications for corporate profits, worker pay and even the federal government’s bottom line.”

“Those two factors [aging population, low productivity]make for headwinds that are hard to overcome,” she said.”

The Times includes a chart showing how economists have mostly overestimated GDP:

The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Nowcast for 2Q is now at 3.7%:

The NY Fed’s Nowcast is a bit lower:

Commodity Research Group (CRG), founded by veteran analyst Edward Meir, is an independent research consultancy specializing in base and precious metals, as well energy products. The Group provides research and general price analysis for these markets, along with advice to companies seeking to construct commodity hedging strategies.

Our associates bring decades of experience to the table, as they seek to help our clients understand the markets. CRG will distill the myriad of pricing variables mentioned above into coherent research that is to-the-point and tailored to a clients hedging or pricing needs. In addition, CRG is available for consulting assignments and speaking engagements. CRG does not manage money or trade for itself.

Reader Interactions

Leave a Reply Cancel reply