OPEC net oil revenues… EIA

by Jim Colburn • Tuesday, September 18, 2018

The EIA’s Today in Energy has some nice charts showing OPEC revenues here:


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Hedge Fund Performance… Ritholtz

by Jim Colburn • Monday, September 17, 2018

Barry Ritholz, Bloomberg, suggests some reasons why hedge funds have underperformed the S&P, here and here…  His charts tell the tale:

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Tale of Two Oil Markets (revisited)… Bloomberg

by Jim Colburn • Sunday, September 16, 2018

Here is Jessica Summers, Blooomberg, on the divergence of Brent and WTI oil prices:

“Hedge funds’ net-long position — the difference between bets on higher prices and wagers on a drop — in Brent rose 5.6 percent to 440,074 contracts, ICE Futures Europe data show for the week ended Sept. 11. That’s the highest level in two months. Longs rose, while shorts slid to the lowest since May.

Meanwhile, the net-long position in WTI crude declined 5.1 percent to 346,327 futures and options, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Longs slid 5 percent, while shorts dipped 3.2 percent.”


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India buys less oil from Iran… Reuters

by Jim Colburn • Friday, September 14, 2018

Market participants are trying to figure out how much Iranian oil will be sold after November… Here is Nidhi Verma, Reuters  on Indian purchases:



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100 million Euro loss in Nordic power market.. FT

by Jim Colburn • Thursday, September 13, 2018

Phil Stafford and David Sheppard, Financial Times, write, here:

(my bold)

“The catalyst for the trading loss was a series of backfiring bets on the price difference between German and Nordic power markets, according to multiple sources in the industry. Mr Aas’s trades were positioned for the gap between the two to narrow, but instead it widened sharply to a level 17 times larger than normal. That move was triggered, in part, by a jump in the price of carbon allowances in Europe that have been the best performing commodity so far this year and a source of bumper profits for hedge funds and investment banks. Rising carbon prices, which are trading at a decade high, have dragged up natural gas and electricity markets in continental Europe. At the same time, a forecast of wetter than previously anticipated weather in the Nordic region, where hydropower is a big contributor to electricity supplies, pushed prices on the so-called Nordpool market far lower.”

Isn’t that the way it always happens?  (The market moves some multiple of “normal”.)

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Petroleum Supply/Demand Balance.. EIA

by Jim Colburn • Wednesday, September 12, 2018

Here is the EIA’s take on petroleum supply/demand going forward:

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Less crude, more products…

by Jim Colburn • Wednesday, September 12, 2018

In This Week in Petroleum, the EIA shows a draw in US crude stocks, while gasoline and distillate stocks grow (distillates sharply):

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Fund activity in oil… Kemp

by Jim Colburn • Tuesday, September 11, 2018

John Kemp, Reuters, has this to say about fund activity in oil markets:

”Hedge funds and other money managers raised their combined net long position in the six most important petroleum futures and options contracts by 47 million barrels in the week to Sept. 4.

Fund managers have boosted their net long position by 172 million barrels in the last two weeks, after cutting it by 508 million barrels since April 17, according to regulatory and exchange records.”

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Oil exports from Iran… Bloomberg

by Jim Colburn • Sunday, September 9, 2018

Julian Lee, Bloomberg, has a nice piece on Iranian exports, here

”Iran exported just over 2 million barrels a day of crude oil and condensate (a light form of crude extracted from gas fields) in August, according to Bloomberg tanker tracking. That is the lowest since March 2016, and down 28 percent from April, the last month before President Donald Trump announced that he was withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal and reimposing sanctions.”


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Oil prices…

by Jim Colburn • Sunday, September 9, 2018

Oil prices churn sideways:

Dan Molinski, Wall Street Journal, writes:

”The rapid rise and fall in oil prices is a sign that investors are weighing conflicting signals in the market. On the one hand, robust developed-market economies have sustained demand for crude, while U.S. sanctions against Iran have led to shrinking oil exports from the country, draining global supplies. At the same time, emerging markets recently tipped into a bear market, spurring investors to closely monitor whether deeper declines will spill over into other assets.”

Here is a longer term perspective:




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