Rebalancing is here… IEA

by Jim Colburn • Tuesday, May 16, 2017

The IEA’s monthly Oil Market Report is out… Here are some highlights:

“It has taken some time for stocks to reflect lower supply when volumes produced before output cuts by OPEC and eleven non-OPEC countries took effect are still being absorbed by the market. In 1Q17, we might not have seen a resounding return to deficits but this Report confirms our recent message that re-balancing is essentially here and, in the short term at least, is accelerating.”

In 2Q17…. “there is an implied stock draw of 0.7 mb/d. Adopting the same scenario approach for the second half of 2017, the stock draws are likely to be even greater.”

“…we need to keep a close eye on Libya and Nigeria where there are signs that production might be rising sustainably.”

“As for demand, we have left unchanged our headline growth number for 2017 at 1.3 mb/d. Growth was weaker than expected in 1Q17, however, with notable downward revisions seen in the US (where demand is essentially flat), Germany, Turkey and India (where the effect of the currency reform lingers on).”




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