U.S. Oil Production Outlook… EIA – Commodity Research Group

July 15, 2016 by Jim Colburn Leave a Comment

Here is US oil production through April, from the EIA’s monthly numbers:

Earlier this week, the EIA released it’s monthly Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Here are some notes on US oil production from that report:

Estimated US oil production for 2016 is 8.6 mbd and 2017 is 8.2 mbd, compared with 9.4 mbd in 2015
June 2016 is estimated at 8.6 compared with a recent high 9.7 in April 2015 (highest since April, 1971)
1Q16 production was 9.2, 3Q16 is expected 8.1
April16 to Sep16 is expected to see an average 180,000 barrel decline in production
Oct16 to July17 is expected flat at 8.2 mbd
3Q17 production is expected to begin to rise due to higher expected prices and higher productivity
Gulf of Mexico production at 1.5 mbd in 2015 is expected to be at 1.9 in Q417

Commodity Research Group (CRG), founded by veteran analyst Edward Meir, is an independent research consultancy specializing in base and precious metals, as well energy products. The Group provides research and general price analysis for these markets, along with advice to companies seeking to construct commodity hedging strategies.

Our associates bring decades of experience to the table, as they seek to help our clients understand the markets. CRG will distill the myriad of pricing variables mentioned above into coherent research that is to-the-point and tailored to a clients hedging or pricing needs. In addition, CRG is available for consulting assignments and speaking engagements. CRG does not manage money or trade for itself.

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