The bull and bear case for oil… from FT

From the Financial Times, Ed Morse (bear case) and Paul Horsnell (bull case) go at it (may be gated):

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/793b7eb4-b91d-11e5-b151-8e15c9a029fb.html#axzz3x6GazaeN

Here is Paul:

“In the absence of that, non-Opec supply will have to rebalance the market which we expect to fall by over 1m b/d in 2016, with the largest slice of that being US shale oil. US crude oil production is already down over 500,000 b/d from its April 2015 peak and should help bring the market into balance by April, and then into a significant deficit for the second half of the year.”

And this is Ed:

“As global stocks of crude oil and petroleum products continue to increase, the energy industry appears to be running out of storage capacity, which will probably further weaken oil prices which could fall as low as the $20 range.”