Rate hikes back on the table, Sober Look…

February 28, 2016 by Jim Colburn Leave a Comment

Here is an interesting take on inflation from Sober Look: http://soberlook.com/2016/02/the-fed-could-be-back-in-play-in-2016.html

Here is their conclusion based on the idea that inflation expectations (or lack of) may be overdone:

“Some suggest that raising rates in the current environment is nothing short of insanity. Given the monetary easing by the ECB, the BOJ, etc. (as rates move deeper into negative territory) or the dovish stance by the BOC, the BOE, and others, the US dollar is bound to resume its rally, causing further damage to the US economy. In fact the latest PMI measures, (from Markit as well as ISM) suggest that the US economic activity has already slowed sharply in the first quarter. Nevertheless, given the Fed’s focus on some of the indicators discussed above, rate hikes in 2016 are now back on the table.”

Perhaps the longer end of the Treasury market is picking up on this too (from barchart.com):

Commodity Research Group (CRG), founded by veteran analyst Edward Meir, is an independent research consultancy specializing in base and precious metals, as well energy products. The Group provides research and general price analysis for these markets, along with advice to companies seeking to construct commodity hedging strategies.

Our associates bring decades of experience to the table, as they seek to help our clients understand the markets. CRG will distill the myriad of pricing variables mentioned above into coherent research that is to-the-point and tailored to a clients hedging or pricing needs. In addition, CRG is available for consulting assignments and speaking engagements. CRG does not manage money or trade for itself.

Reader Interactions

Leave a Reply Cancel reply