Nick Cunningham, at OilPrice.com, suggests that the data is mixed enough to give bulls and bears plenty to make a case:
“One can find whatever they want in the data. Looking for signs that the oil market is moving towards balance? There’s a strong inventory decline for you. Worried that the market is still woefully oversupplied? Yep, there is also data to back up that conclusion – another week of strong production increases.”
“For example, two headlines from the same news outlet, The Wall Street Journal, highlight how interpretations of the health of the oil market can vary depending on the focus. Following the release of the EIA data, the WSJ reported: “Oil Rises on Bigger-Than-Expected Inventory Decline.” But early the next morning, another WSJ article reads: “Oil Struggles After Rise in U.S. Output.””
But we are talking about oil, and oil prices will eventually move sharply somewhere…
Here is a 5 year chart of the oil VIX, a measure of expected volatility:
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