I was looking at the production numbers in the current Weekly Petroleum Status Report (http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/overview.pdf) and noticed that the four week average was now running 4% below last year, compared with a 1.9% rate of decline, year to date. US Production is declining at an accelerating rate! Except that on the year to year comparison, we are comparing current production to last year’s high levels. So, the current 4 week average which is flat or on the way down is compared to last year’s 4 week average which is on it’s way up… Also, Andy pointed out that this week’s production number, 9.0 is in line with the EIA’s forecast (and, perhaps, is the consensus number) in the most recent Short Term Energy Outlook of 8.99 for the month of April (the next update is on April 12th)… Ok, here is the chart:
If this were a price chart, we might want to look at buying some puts (meaning the trend in oil production looks lower)… The EIA is looking at a monthly low in production this year at 8.21 in September and a low of 7.95 in September of 2017…
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