U.S. Oil Production… EIA

The EIA has a nice chart showing U.S. oil production on and offshore with projections:

Here are their expectations:

“In response to continued low oil prices, onshore crude oil production in the Lower 48 states is expected to decline from an average of 7.41 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2015 to 6.46 million b/d in 2016 and to 5.76 million b/d in 2017. Increased production from the federal Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is not enough to offset those declines, with total projected U.S. production falling from 9.43 million b/d in 2015 to 8.04 million b/d in 2017.”

I’m not sure why they calculate and report confidence intervals for crude oil prices:

“Market expectations of uncertainty in the crude oil price outlook continue to be high, as reflected in the current values of futures and options contracts. In EIA’s April Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the 95% confidence interval for market expectations for prices in December 2017 is relatively wide, with upper and lower limits of $20 per barrel (b) and $100/b, respectively. EIA’s April STEO forecasts Brent crude oil prices averaging $35/b in 2016 and $41/b in 2017, with the December 2017 price averaging $45/b.”

Before oil prices dropped from +$100 levels, implied volatility was at record low levels, indicating relatively high uncertainty in the crude oil price outlook…  Maybe current implied vols are keeping the EIA from using two decimal points when forecasting prices?

Here is the link: http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=25892