And they revise oil demand down (my bold):
”In the short term, oil demand remains weak and we have reduced our estimate for the fourth quarter of 2020 by 0.2 million barrels per day on small data revisions in various countries. For the year as a whole, global demand will be 91.2 mb/d, which is 8.8 mb/d below the 2019 level and down 0.1 mb/d from our last Report. Demand has recovered from its trough in the second quarter when it was 16.3 mb/d (16.4%) below the year-earlier level, but in 4Q20 it remains 6.2 mb/d down year-onyear, reflecting the impact of the second wave of lockdowns.
The recovery in the second half of 2020 is almost entirely due to China’s fast rebound from lockdown. Demand there will grow by 0.7 mb/d in the period. The picture in OECD countries is bleak: in the same period demand will be 5.3 mb/d lower than a year ago. Indeed, Europe appears to be going backwards with demand in 4Q20 lower than in 3Q20 as re-imposed lockdowns take their toll. Globally, weakness in the aviation sector largely explains a downgrade to demand in this Report of 0.3 mb/d for the first half of 2021. This contributes to a smaller rebound in demand in 2021 of 5.7 mb/d.”
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