The IEA’s monthly Oil Market Report is out… Here are some highlights:
Expect stocks to draw slightly as we move through 2028:
Demand growth revised higher (but still on the low end of other estimates):
“Looking at demand, our estimate for global growth in 2018 has increased by 90 kb/d taking it up to 1.5 mb/d. Although this is a modest revision, it is interesting that provisional data suggests very strong starts to the year in China and India, which, taken together, accounted for nearly 50% of global demand growth in 2017. Cold weather in some parts of the northern hemisphere in January-February saw an increase in heating demand.”
”We retain our view that total non-OPEC production grew by 760 kb/d last year and that it will surge by 1.78 mb/d this year. Within the OPEC countries, the biggest risk factor is, and will likely remain, Venezuela. Our estimate for February shows output down again, by 60 kb/d. Other countries with a risk factor include Libya, and, to a lesser extent, Nigeria. In Libya, we saw another modest supply gain in February to 1.02 mb/d and, although stability cannot be taken for granted, it appears that the frequency and severity of production interruptions is declining and higher rates of output are being maintained. Taking OPEC as a whole, quota compliance in February was 147%, but even if Venezuela’s production were at its allocated level, the group’s compliance would still be close to 100%.”
very informative.