Today’s release of the EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook upped US oil production estimates for 2017 and 2018:
“EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production to average 9.2 million b/d in 2017 and 9.7 million b/d in 2018, which are 0.2 million b/d higher both years than in the previous forecast. The higher forecast reflects improvements to forecasting methodology for rig efficiencies and an expectation of a more rapid near-term increase in drilling and completion activity, particularly in the Permian region. Additionally, a faster expected ramp-up in projects that started in 2016 (such as the Thunder Horse South Expansion) contributes to higher forecast production in the Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico.”
Liquified Natural Gas export estimates were also increased:
“EIA forecasts liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to average 1.8 Bcf/d in 2017 and 2.8 Bcf/d in 2018. This forecast is 0.4 Bcf/d and 0.2 Bcf/d higher for those years, respectively, than previously forecast. This revision is based on updates to commercial in-service dates and ramp-up periods of LNG facilities currently under construction.”
Here is their chart showing supply and demand coming into balance:
Balance maybe, but from a days supply perspective stock levels are expected to remain on the high end:
And finally, from the STEO, here is a chart showing heating and cooling degree days compared to recent “normals”…:
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