The call on OPEC crude… IEA

The recently released Oil Monthly Report by the IEA has a nice chart showing their expectations for the demand for OPEC oil:

Here is their summary:

“Even with tentative signs that bulging inventories are starting to decline, our supply-demand outlook suggests that the market – if left to its own devices – may remain in oversupply through the first half of next year. If OPEC sticks to its new target, the market’s rebalancing could come faster.”

I would spin it this way:

If left to its own devices, we still expect supply/demand to balance sometime in the second half of next year…

OPEC is producing 33.6 mbd… With Iran, Libya and Nigeria expected to increase production, a cut to the level agreed to on September 28th (32.5 to 33) is unlikely without Saudi Arabia accepting the brunt of production cuts…