OPEC vs. IEA, dueling forecasts… Bloomberg

December 14, 2017 by Jim Colburn Leave a Comment

The IEA and OPEC released their monthly situation and outlook reports this week… Here is Bloomberg on how they differ:

“They live in the same world for the first half of 2018, but divorce into separate universes for the second half,” said Olivier Jakob, managing director at consultants Petromatrix GmbH in Zug, Switzerland. “OPEC believes in strong growth of oil demand; the IEA believes in strong growth of non-OPEC supplies.”…

“While OPEC expects rival supplies to expand by 1 million barrels a day next year, the IEA forecasts non-OPEC to grow by 1.6 million a day. The difference partly lies in their conflicting views of the supply source that unleashed the glut OPEC is now battling to clear: U.S. shale oil. OPEC boosted estimates for U.S. crude production this week and now sees an expansion of 720,000 barrels a day next year. Still, the IEA’s forecast is about 20 percent higher.”

Here is the difference in expected stock draws/builds:

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