The WSJ lists 5 reasons why an OPEC deal on production cuts may not be long term bullish… Here is one of them:
“The group proposed cutting its collective output to between 32.5 million barrels a day and 33 million barrels a day, from 33.2 million barrels a day in August. That cut is only a fraction of the reduction producers reached in 2008.
If OPEC cuts its production to 33 million barrels a day, that still wouldn’t be enough to bring production back in line with demand until the second half of 2017, according to estimates by the International Energy Agency.
And some analysts estimate the actual cut could easily be much smaller. A lot will depend on Iran and Libya, where output is just beginning to recover, and on Nigeria, where it may be about to pick up again, according to strategists at Société Générale.”
Here is the link: http://www.wsj.com/articles/why-opecs-prospective-deal-may-not-create-a-lasting-oil-rally-1475151854
Looking at a long term chart of WTI futures, we see that we have most recently been in $40/50 price range and a $30/60 range since 2015… Is the OPEC “agreement” enough to take us up to $60? Or is supply still overwhelming demand enough to take us below $40? 
Implied volatility rose significantly into the OPEC meeting as you can see in the lower portion of the chart below (charts are from barchart.com):
My guess here is that there will be lots of price push/pull due to divergent market opinions into the November OPEC meeting and that implied vols move stubbornly lower…. Implicit in this view is that $43/44 WTI is a short term floor…
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