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Oil market’s vol decline… WSJ

You are here: Home / Commodity Research / Oil market’s vol decline… WSJ

August 27, 2020 by Jim Colburn Leave a Comment

I have some problems with this article in the WSJ on the decline of volatility… The article starts with this:

“When Laura and Marco barreled toward Louisiana and Texas this week, companies closed more than four-fifths of offshore oil production in the Gulf of Mexico to protect equipment and personnel. Crude-oil prices barely budged.”

But since much of US oil production is on land (but some could also be shut in) and refiners also shut down during hurricanes offsetting less supply (and are less reliable restarting), the market no longer moves like it once did ahead of hurricanes. One more and, stock levels are at lofty levels.

But here is the headline:

Oil Market’s Wild Swings Subdued by Options Trading

Option volume is at extreme lows… Many option sellers were blown out in April… And do the authors have evidence of strangle selling by hedge funds?  My take on this market is the opposite of the headline, Options Trading Subdued by a Quiet Oil Market… At least the charts are good:

 

 

 

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Commodity Research Group (CRG), founded by veteran analyst Edward Meir, is an independent research consultancy specializing in base and precious metals, as well energy products. The Group provides research and general price analysis for these markets, along with advice to companies seeking to construct commodity hedging strategies.

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