The IEA’s Oil Market Report was released today… This is from the summary:
”But it will take more time for oil demand to recover fully as renewed lockdowns in a number of countries weigh on fuel sales. This has contributed to us revising down our forecast for global oil demand by 0.6 mb/d for 1Q21 and 0.3 mb/d for 2021 as a whole. World oil demand is now expected to rise by 5.5 mb/d this year, following 2020’s 8.8 mb/d contraction. This recovery mainly reflects the impact of fiscal and monetary support packages as well as the effectiveness of steps to resolve the pandemic.
Anticipating weaker demand, OPEC+ decided in January to delay a further easing of cuts and Saudi Arabia surprised with an additional 1 mb/d supply reduction in February and March. The group’s more proactive production restraint looks set to hasten a drawdown in the global stock surplus that got underway in earnest during 3Q20. Assuming OPEC+ achieves 100% compliance with the latest agreement, global oil stocks could draw by 1.1 mb/d, or 100 mb, in 1Q21, with the potential for much steeper declines during the second half of the year as demand strengthens.”
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