Nick Cunningham, Oil Price, has an excellent piece on oil fundamentals as he writes around recent Goldman commentary… Here are some pieces, but more is here..
”Iranian exports may drop below 1 million barrels a day in November, with Indian refiners potentially loading nothing and China cutting back as well,” Amrita Sen of Energy Aspects Ltd. said in a note.
Still, Goldman Sachs says this isn’t a reason to panic. “The decline occurred faster than we had expected, although some Iranian production is likely being exported through Iraq, with Basra loadings up 0.3 mb/d over the same period,” Goldman analysts argued. “While we adjust our Iran export path to re?ect this faster decline, this has no impact on our oil balance as we continue to expect that the rest of OPEC will offset such losses.”
Right on cue, Libya’s oil production just rose to a five-year high at 1.28 mb/d.
Increasing output from Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Russia have led aggregate OPEC+ production to come in higher than expected. Plus, the pledge from OPEC+ to return to 100 percent compliance suggests another 0.5 mb/d could be on the way. Saudi Arabia has already hinted that it would ramp up production in September and October as Iranian supply goes offline. To top it off, production from the Neutral Zonebetween Saudi Arabia and Kuwait could come back online, adding another 0.3 mb/d by the first quarter of 2019, Goldman says.”
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