Oil Forecasters Aim High… from Bloomberg

The difficulty in predicting oil prices a year ahead is clear, as this Bloomberg chart shows…  In January 2015’s Short Term Energy Report (STEO), the EIA calculated a 95% confidence interval of $28 to $112 based on implied volatility of December WTI options prices… We could debate the value of a price range expectation that could be enhanced by any NYC cab driver, but the point remains that these are treacherous markets to analyze and trade… (The EIA will release it’s most current STEO later today…)

http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2015-12-08/2016-oil-price-forecasts-still-look-high?cmpid=yhoo.headline

And, analysts seem to disregard futures markets when making predictions.. Again, from the Bloomberg article, a chart showing consensus forecasts tend to be over actual traded markets:

“Analyst forecasts are back to looking relatively high vis-a-vis where oil trades in the futures market.”