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Market Notes…

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March 24, 2016 by Jim Colburn Leave a Comment


Option volume was light yesterday with about 106,000 contracts trading (Jan and Feb averaged 217,926)… Implied volatility did not jump much, with May settling around 42%…  Only one option traded over 10,000 times… June 25 puts, settling at $.08, traded 11,700 times…

However, WTI spread options were active with around 50,000 trading, all but about 5,000 were puts… 4Q16 -75/-100 put spreads traded 3,000 times, settling at 3 cents… And some put butterflies traded in the same quarter: -75/-100/-125, 2,000/4,000/2,000 times… These trades might indicate that traders are looking for weakness in 4Q16 structure going forward… Recall an earlier post where a spread option trade was initiated to profit in a backwardated market in 2017…

Yesterday’s EIA report was not all bearish:

Domestic production was estimated down 30,000 for the week, to 9,038…

Cushing stocks declined by 1.3, to 66.2 million…

Gasoline demand is scorching hot at 7% over last year (4 week average)… (nicer weather, lower heating costs, more people working, etc…)

Here are gasoline stocks from the EIA:

image

But, here are crude stocks:

image

 

 

 

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Commodity Research Group (CRG), founded by veteran analyst Edward Meir, is an independent research consultancy specializing in base and precious metals, as well energy products. The Group provides research and general price analysis for these markets, along with advice to companies seeking to construct commodity hedging strategies.

Our associates bring decades of experience to the table, as they seek to help our clients understand the markets. CRG will distill the myriad of pricing variables mentioned above into coherent research that is to-the-point and tailored to a clients hedging or pricing needs. In addition, CRG is available for consulting assignments and speaking engagements. CRG does not manage money or trade for itself.

 


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