Of the three agencies that issue monthly situation/outlook reports (IEA, EIA and OPEC), the IEA‘s is the only one that is gated… But they do put out a summary: https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/
Here are some highlights:
“Sharp decelerations in demand growth – particularly in the US and China – pulled global growth down to a one-year low of 1.2 mb/d in 4Q15, compared to the year earlier, dramatically below the near five-year high of 2.3 mb/d in 3Q15. A gain of around 1.2 mb/d is forecast for 2016.”
“Global oil supplies eased by 180 kb/d in February, to 96.5 mb/d, on lower OPEC and non-OPEC output. Production stood 1.8 mb/d above a year earlier, as a slight decline in non-OPEC was more than offset by OPEC gains. Non-OPEC production is estimated to fall by 750 kb/d, to 57.0 mb/d in 2016, 100 kb/d less than in last month’s Report.”
“We have looked at stocks data for both the OECD – where commercial stocks levels increased in January to yet another record high – and non-OECD. It is clear that China has added significant volumes to both commercial and strategic stocks during 2015 culminating in an apparent build of 1.4 mb/d in December. We have also re-analysed our data for floating storage and oil in transit and further reduced the uncertainty in the supply/demand balance that is described as “missing barrels”. The figure usually described as such is now 0.8 mb/d, well within the normal range considering the vagaries of oil data.”
“In this report we present an essentially unchanged picture for the overall oil supply/demand balances. For the first half of 2016, the implied surplus of supply over demand remains high at 1.9 mb/d in 1Q and 1.5 mb/d in 2Q. To the extent the oil price is forward-looking, comfort will be taken from our view that in the second half of 2016 the gap between supply and demand narrows significantly to 0.2 mb/d in both 3Q and 4Q.”
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