The International Energy Agency released its flagship Oil Market Report for April, raising demand estimates for 2021 by 230,000 b/d…
- Oil demand in 2021 is forecast to reach 96.7 mb/d, an increase of 5.7 mb/d from 2020. Despite weaker-than-expected data for 1Q21, annual growth has been revised up by 230 kb/d on average to take account of better economic forecasts and robust prompt indicators. The recovery remains fragile, however, with the number of Covid cases surging in some major consuming countries.
And here is their summary of 2H21:
“The market changes dramatically in the latter half of this year as nearly 2 mb/d of extra supply may be required to meet expected demand growth – even after factoring in the announced ramp-up of OPEC+ production. Global refinery runs are forecast to rise by 6.8 mb/d from April to August, just as crude oil-fired power generation rises seasonally.
Yet, the market does not face an impending supply crunch. By July, OPEC+ will still have close to 6 mb/d of effective spare production capacity, excluding some 1.5 mb/d of Iranian crude now shut in by sanctions. The bloc’s monthly calibration of supply may give it the flexibility to meet incremental demand by ramping up swiftly or adjusting output lower should the demand recovery fail to keep pace.”
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