IEA, a contrary indicator?

January 19, 2016, Bloomberg reports, quoting the IEA:

““While the pace of stock-building eases in the second half of the year as supply from non-OPEC producers falls, unless something changes, the oil market could drown in oversupply,” said the Paris-based adviser to industrialized economies. Prices “could go lower.””

February 9th, 2016, Reuters quotes the IEA (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iea-oil-idUSKCN0VI0MT :

“”Supply and demand data for the second half of the year suggests more stock building, this time by 0.3 million bpd. If these numbers prove to be accurate, and with the market already awash in oil, it is very hard to see how oil prices can rise significantly in the short term. In these conditions the short-term risk to the downside has increased.””

Here is what happened:

The low of the year was made two days after we were “awash in oil”…

This is from today’s WSJ quoting the IEA (http://www.wsj.com/articles/global-oil-markets-near-balance-despite-iran-exports-beating-expectations-says-iea-1463040029)

““Further oil price rises, though, are likely to be limited by brimming crude oil and products stocks that will remain a feature of the market until more normal levels of inventory are reached,” it said.”

Let’s see what happens next….