The U.S. Energy Information Energy included the effects of Hurricane Ida on oil production in their Short Term Energy Outlook for September… Here is Today in Energy with a summary:
“On Sunday, August 29, Hurricane Ida made landfall near Port Fourchon, Louisiana, as a Category 4 hurricane. As a result of the hurricane, 96% of crude oil production and 94% of natural gas production in the U.S. federally administered areas of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) were shut in, according to estimates by the U.S. Department of Interior’s Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement. At least nine refineries shut down or reduced production. As a result, we reduced our forecast for crude oil production and refinery runs in our September Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).
We revised down our estimate for U.S. crude oil production in the GOM in August by 0.2 million barrels per day (b/d) from the August STEO to 1.5 million b/d in the September STEO. We reduced our forecast of production in the GOM for September by 0.5 million b/d from the August STEO to 1.2 million b/d in the September STEO. We expect that disrupted GOM crude oil production will return through September, increasing to our previously forecast levels in October. Last year, the GOM accounted for 15% of U.S. crude oil production.
According to our Weekly Petroleum Status Report, gross inputs into Gulf Coast refineries fell by 1.6 million b/d from the week ending August 27 to the week ending September 3. Although some refiners have resumed operations or begun the process for restarting, we expect refinery runs will average 713,000 b/d lower in September than they would have without the disruptions.
Repairs to any infrastructure required to resume refinery operations, however, could potentially take longer, making the forecast highly uncertain. We forecast that average crude oil inputs into refineries later this year will be mostly unchanged from our previous August STEO forecast.”