Based on recent economic data released, the Atlanta Fed has increased its 2Q GDP estimate up .4 to +2.9%…
“Latest forecast: 2.9 percent — May 26, 2016
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 2.9 percent on May 26, up from 2.5 percent on May 17. The forecast for second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from -0.3 percent to 0.4 percent following this morning’s durable manufacturing release from the U.S. Census Bureau. After yesterday’s advance report on international trade in goods from the Census Bureau, the forecast for the contribution of net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.04 percentage points to 0.16 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, May 31. Please see the “Release Dates” tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.”
Here is the site: https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1
Here is the track of their estimates:
And, FYI, Yale professor Ray Fair writes that current GDP data suggests a Republican win in November:
“Most economists believe the economy will grow at about a 3% annual rate between now and November 2016. If that happens, my equation predicts the Democrats will win about 46% of the vote in a two-party contest. In order for them to win more than 50%, the economy would need to grow at about 4%, and even in that case their predicted vote share would climb only slightly above the halfway mark.”
Here is the link:
http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-0527-fair-election-prediction-20150527-story.html
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