Forecasting interest rates… The Grumpy Economist

January 31, 2022 by Jim Colburn Leave a Comment

John H. Cochrane, The Grumpy Economist, quotes Torsten Slok (chief economist at Apollo Global Management) on forecasting interest rates, here:

”The forecasting track record of the economics profession when it comes to 10-year interest rates is not particularly impressive, see chart [above]. Since the Philadelphia Fed started their Survey of Professional Forecasters twenty years ago, the economists and strategists participating have been systematically wrong, predicting that long rates would move higher. Their latest release has the same prediction.”

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