Turnover might take longer than you think… Here are Brad Plumer, Nadja Popovich and Blacki Migliozzi, NY Times:
“Around the world, governments and automakers are focused on selling newer, cleaner electric vehicles as a key solution to climate change. Yet it could take years, if not decades, before the technology has a drastic effect on greenhouse gas emissions.
One reason for that? It will take a long time for all the existing gasoline-powered vehicles on the road to reach the end of their life spans.
This “fleet turnover” can be slow, analysts said, because conventional gasoline-powered cars and trucks are becoming more reliable, breaking down less often and lasting longer on the road. The average light-duty vehicle operating in the United States today is 12 years old, according to IHS Markit, an economic forecasting firm. That’s up from 9.6 years old in 2002.
“Engineering quality has gotten significantly better over time, in part because of competition from foreign automakers like Toyota,” said Todd Campau, who specializes in automotive aftermarket analysis at IHS Markit.”
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