Fereidoon Sionshani from energypost.eu has a nice piece on peak oil demand (remember “peak oil supply” about 10 years ago?) here…
He quotes Redburn: “In a report titled When will global oil demand peak? Rob West, an analyst at Redburn, an investment research and advisory service in the City of London points out that: “Global oil demand grew +1.1Mbpd pa in the last decade. Peak demand is seen well beyond 2035 by BP, in 2040 by the IEA, in 2030 by McKinsey and in 2029 by OPEC. But at $55-60 oil, we argue demand can slow to <0.5Mbpd pa from 2020 and peak in 2026.””
“West identifies 5 major trends, all contributing to intensified market competition and – one might add – potentially devastating consequences for the oil majors.
Alternatives to oil, especially in the critical transportation sector, will make oil vulnerable to behavioral and technological disruptions (see table);
Electric vehicles – increasingly charged from renewable sources – will begin to eat into internal combustion engine’s (ICE) dominant market share – a trend that many expect will accelerate once EVs move mainstream and a charging infrastructure is in place;
Oil subsidies, once prevalent in many countries – are expected to dwindle or be phased out entirely as already witnessed in a number of countries.
Cheap solar , wind and gas-fired generation will reduce oil demand in the global electric power sector; and
Travel demand will dwindle due to aging population and the rise of “virtual travel.””
There are some interesting charts, too, do check out the whole article…
But After reading the article, I see no reason to sell gasoline, distillates or crude oil…
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