Benoit Falcon, Wall Street Journal, suggests that Iran’s oil exports are dropping faster than expected…
“Iran oil shipments are declining at a faster-than-expected pace ahead of U.S. sanctions set to begin in November.
Iran expects crude exports to fall by a third in September, according to people familiar with purchasing plans, potentially posing an unforeseen supply risk to markets. Officials at the state-run National Iranian Oil Co. provisionally expect crude shipments to drop to about 1.5 million barrels a day next month, down from about 2.3 million barrels a day in June, say people familiar with the country’s ports loading program.
Many experts had expected oil shipments to decline by about 1 million barrels by year’s end. Now some of them say that fall may have already happened. Iran hasn’t yet announced its exports this month or its forecast for next month.”
Here is the link… And, here is the crude chart going back 5 years (from barchart.com):