The underrated NYTimes business section lays out US GDP possibilities here: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/26/business/economy/economic-growth-gross-domestic-product.html
Economist Diane Swonk is quoted:
““We’re still on track for a 2 percent growth economy, give or take a little, but not a 3 percent economy,” said Diane Swonk, a veteran independent economist in Chicago. “It may not sound like much, but the difference is important.”
In a $17 trillion economy, it is a difference of $170 billion per year, which has major implications for corporate profits, worker pay and even the federal government’s bottom line.”
“Those two factors [aging population, low productivity]make for headwinds that are hard to overcome,” she said.”
The Times includes a chart showing how economists have mostly overestimated GDP:
The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Nowcast for 2Q is now at 3.7%:
The NY Fed’s Nowcast is a bit lower:
Leave a Reply