The Wall Street Journal quotes the excellent Amrita Sen:
““Libyan production was rising, they were talking about getting to 1 million barrels a day, I’m not sure they were going to get to that but the fact that they’re down to less than 500,000 barrels, that’s a big change,” said Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects.
This has coincided with U.S. data showing that product stocks have shrunk sharply, which is also positive for prices, Ms. Sen added.
Since OPEC instated cuts—which Libya was exempt from—there has been a 94% compliance rate from its members, but doubts on the effectiveness and sustainability of the deal kept prices in a narrow range for much of the year. Non-OPEC compliance has been more questionable.
“There’s skepticism around Russia but I think the main thing has been that the Russian refinery maintenance is undoubtedly a lot higher than people realized and that’s why their exports have been high. I think their May export program will be a lot lower,” Ms. Sen said.””
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