After this morning’s job report, I thought the Atlanta Fed’s model might be renamed ApocalypseNow, but their estimate for 2Q GDP is unch at +2.5%…
“The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 2.5 percent on June 3, unchanged from June 1. Following this morning’s economic releases, the second-quarter forecast for real gross private domestic investment growth increased from –1.8 percent to –1.0 percent. Offsetting this increase was a decline in the forecast of the contribution of net exports to real GDP growth from 0.32 percentage points to 0.23 percentage points after this morning’s international trade release from the U.S. Census Bureau.”
I’m not sure how exactly jobs data are integrated into the model, but I do love having a tool which updates in real time… Here is the link: https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1
Also, if today’s data have a net zero effect on GDP estimates, should equity markets trade back to unchanged?
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