Atlanta Fed 4Q GDP Nowcast comes back to earth…

Here is the Atlanta Fed:

”The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2017 is 3.3 percent on November 3, down from 4.5 percent on November 1. The forecasts of real consumer spending growth and real private fixed investment growth declined from 3.9 percent and 8.7 percent, respectively, to 3.2 percent and 6.0 percent, respectively, after this morning’s employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The model’s estimate of the dynamic factor for October—normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1 and used to forecast the yet-to-be released monthly GDP source data—declined from 1.50 to 0.63 after the ISM report. The forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to fourth-quarter real GDP growth declined from 0.14 percentage points to -0.03 percentage points after this morning’s manufacturing report from the U.S. Census Bureau.”