A Moving Target… IEA

Here are some highlights from the IEA’s October Oil Market Report:

“The trajectory for Covid-19 infections is strongly upwards in many countries and governments are tightening restrictions on the movements of their citizens. This surely raises doubts about the robustness of the anticipated economic recovery and thus the prospects for oil demand growth.”….

”Our global demand and supply estimates (including an assumption of full compliance with the OPEC+ agreement) imply a significant stock draw of 4 mb/d in the fourth quarter. While this is a large change, it is happening from record high levels. With the 1.9 mb/d increase in the OPEC+ production ceiling currently planned for 1 January, there is only limited headroom for the market to absorb extra supply in the next few months. Also, there is a risk that the demand recovery is stalled by the recent increase in Covid-19 cases in many countries.”