A data dependent Fed? – Commodity Research Group

October 6, 2016 by Jim Colburn Leave a Comment

Recent economic data has moved the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Nowcast sharply lower to +2.2%:

Treasury note futures have actually moved lower (rates higher):

The dollar has recently firmed a bit:

And, here is the Cleveland Fed’s nowcast for inflation showing core PCE estimates stilll below Fed targets:

Despite a more hawkish tone by Fed “talking heads”, the argument to leave rates unchanged is still a good one…

The above charts are from barchart.com… The Atlanta Fed GDP nowcast is here: https://frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow/?panel=1 … Inflation numbers from the Cleveland Fed are here: https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting.aspx

Commodity Research Group (CRG), founded by veteran analyst Edward Meir, is an independent research consultancy specializing in base and precious metals, as well energy products. The Group provides research and general price analysis for these markets, along with advice to companies seeking to construct commodity hedging strategies.

Our associates bring decades of experience to the table, as they seek to help our clients understand the markets. CRG will distill the myriad of pricing variables mentioned above into coherent research that is to-the-point and tailored to a clients hedging or pricing needs. In addition, CRG is available for consulting assignments and speaking engagements. CRG does not manage money or trade for itself.

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