Here is the supply/demand balance from the EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook released earlier this week:
Note the expected stock draw for this quarter and next… Here is the EIA:
Although counter-seasonal inventory builds in the United States and weaker demand have contributed to recent oil price weakness, in the June STEO, EIA forecasts tightening balances, particularly in the third quarter of 2019, with a stock draw of 580,000 b/d (Figure 3). Although the STEO has reduced its outlook for global consumption growth, declines in consumption have been matched by declines in forecast liquid fuels production growth. Declining production in Venezuela and Iran, as well as Saudi Arabia’s over compliance with the December 2018 Vienna agreement to cut production, pushed crude oil production among OPEC members to 29.9 million b/d in May, the lowest for any month since July 2014. In the June STEO, EIA forecasts OPEC crude oil production will average 30.2 million b/d in 2019 and 29.7 million b/d in 2020, down by 140,000 b/d in each year compared with the May STEO forecast. In addition, as a result of new information about supply reductions in Russia related to a contaminated crude oil pipeline, EIA revised the 2019 Russian production forecast lower in the June STEO by 40,000 b/d compared with the May STEO forecast.