Commodity Research Group (CRG) is an independent research consultancy specializing in base and precious metals, as well energy products. The Group provides research and general price analysis for these markets, along with advice to companies seeking to construct hedging strategies.
In this podcast, oil market experts Andrew Lebow and Jim Colburn discuss key fundamental forces driving oil prices in both the futures and options markets.
About Your Hosts
Andrew Lebow has been involved in the energy derivative area since 1980. He began his career with Shearson Lehman Brothers where he worked in the initial formulation and marketing of the NYMEX WTI crude contract in 1983 as well as the NYMEX gasoline contract in 1985.
Mr. Lebow has appeared before the State Government of Alaska as well as the State Department of Defense to discuss hedging techniques. Mr. Lebow is also well known as a market analyst and is quoted frequently in the financial press. He has appeared on television on CNBC, NBC, CNN, CBS, and PBS. Mr. Lebow holds a BA from Lafayette College and an MBA from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University
Jim Colburn is a futures and options professional with 30 years of wide ranging experience in commodity markets. For much of his career, at Man Financial (1989-2011) and Jefferies LLC (2012-2013), Mr. Colburn worked with major integrated oil companies, hedge funds, pension funds and other entities to develop market hedging and trading strategies.
He has conducted trading, hedging and risk management workshops in energy markets worldwide.
Mr. Colburn is a published author on options trading, hedging, market making and risk management. In 1986, while at the New York Mercantile Exchange, Mr. Colburn helped develop new markets in energy option contracts by educating the oil industry, banks, floor traders and brokers, worldwide.
Good morning. This is Jim Colburn of commodity research group. I’m with Andy Lebow also of commodity research group and we’re here to talk about energy markets. You could check out our website, commodity research group.com where we post our blogs or podcasts and, and our monthly reports. You’d like to thank our friends at EKT interactive oil and gas training for hosting this podcast. You can check out their podcast and learning firstname.lastname@example.org. This podcast should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and market conditions and is not intended to refer or endorse any particular trading system, strategy or recommendation. We are not responsible for trading decisions taken by anyone, especially those not intended to listen. Information is not guaranteed to be accurate. This is not an offer to buy or sell any derivative. Today is November 9th and we, it’s Friday morning. Andy, um, I’ve said this many times before but a lot has happened since we last met for a podcast, which was a month ago. Um, Marcus gone straight down.
Yeah, it’s trading where a lot of people didn’t really expect it to be trading here, you know, in the first week of November into December, given all those $100 calls that were bought. All right. The third quarter we had talked about, sorry, go ahead. Finish. No, I mean if people couldn’t get enough of those hundred dollar calls.
Yeah. And, and uh, Britain, Brent as well, Wti and Brent and I, and I think, um, there was, uh, it was well reported. We had been talking for a year how the fourth quarter was going to be tight and how the rally up to 75 was just, it was so anticipated. And um, you, you had a great call last month that, you know, he didn’t trust, he didn’t trust the rallying and anything can happen in crude you said, yeah, go to a hundred, but didn’t think it was going to happen. And it was a really a very, very good call. So why don’t you just kind of, what stands out to you in this last month as to a fundamental reasons, uh, why this market is where it is now?
Well, the, the main, uh, the main thing is supply. The OPEC production numbers have come in much higher than what we had expected with gains from the Saudis for the UAE, from Iraq, Libya, even Libya and Nigeria are, are, are producing much higher than expectations because OPEC basically was unrestrained owing to the fact that they were expecting Iranian production to be down. You know, some people were talking about a 1.8 to 2 million barrels a day out of the 2.6 million barrels a day that, uh, Iran exports. Uh, we were even, we were, you know, we’ve been working with one to 1.2, and even we were marking the, those numbers, uh, up to like one, five, one six, I think in the last podcast where we have been talking about that. And certainly the granting of waivers by the Trump administration changed change those views. So you had, uh, a, you know, an OPEC production, uh, again, up at 33 million barrels a day by Reuters.
Bloomberg has them up at 33.3 million barrels a day. And I think if you look at OPEC production in May, relative to where it is now and take out, just take out a random Venezuela, the other OPEC producers of increased production by a million and a half barrels a day from, you know, for May and June. Yeah. Whoa, Whoa is right. And um, you know those, those are really big numbers and what the Eia said, and I know we’re going to talk about the short term energy outlook. You know, we were talking about stock trust in the fourth quarter I think. I think they said they think October could have been a 2 million barrel a day built. I don’t think it’s that high, but it’s going to be a build in October and it looks like it’s going to be a build in November and it’s probably going to be another build in December so that, you know, much anticipated stock draw for the fourth quarter is going to be, we’re going to build stocks in the fourth quarter. That’s it.
It’s an amazing turnaround. So basically, you know, we had talked about, well you the markets, we’ve talked about how there’s a lot of speculative buying that’s been liquidating through this move in. And you’re saying it’s, it’s much more than that.
Oh yeah. It’s much more profound than that. I think a couple of weeks ago, some, you know, some of the bank analysts were saying, well, you know, it’s because of this big liquidation of uh, uh, I think it’s like 150,000 contracts if not more. Uh, and, and if you take Tim Brent that it is much more than that combined, but it’s that liquidation that caused the market to come off the liquidation of speculative length. And that’s the reason the market is soft. And now, you know, that’s not the reason the market, so the market is soft on its own because of supply. And I was just talking about OPEC production, you know, non OPEC production. The Russians are up a four to 500,000 barrels a day from, uh, from May, May, June, and the u s is up maybe 500,000 barrels a day from, from major majored. So you’ve got non OPEC production up up as well. That was the Russians weren’t expected to be quite that high s nor was the US production numbers. Our production diverse have, um, yeah, our production numbers are much higher than expectations too. So you have all this supply, this unexpected supply on the market and you know, you put that much, that much unexpected supply on the market. What’s going to happen, you know, prices are going to go down demand if the demand isn’t there to meet it.
Right. Well you mentioned us production. Can you, uh, just digging into the details looks like, um, the Eia Revit vice, some, a production numbers in August and um, and that led to a, there are Tuesdays short term energy outlook to bump up, uh, uh, production. Can you, you want to just,
Oh my, oh my goodness. I mean, there was a, uh, massive revision to the fewest at the August production numbers by the, um, in the petroleum supply monthly, which comes out at the end of the end of the month. It was up like almost a 400,000 barrel a day upward revision in us, in US production. Now what happens after that with their model, they then revise upward the rest of the quarter and the rest of next year. Yeah, the baseline. So they, they’ve revised upward production by um, you know, three, three 50 to 400,000 barrels a day. So where we thought say, well let’s look at November, you know, we thought that was going to be their previous expectation was like 11.2 it’s now 11.6 million barrels a day similar to December, I think it was 11 three. It’s now 11.66. So, you know, those are big numbers. Him a hundred thousand barrels a day. Um, you know, those are big, they may not prove to be accurate, but you know, the August number wasn’t accurate with the big upward revision. So, um, you know, again, it’s another, it’s another bearish factor.
Can you talk about, since we’re in the north, North American, you just mentioned Canadian production and then
right, another one, right. They revise stuff. Canadian production for this year by 300,000 barrels a day. Yeah. For the year. I said, you know, I, we’re talking about some huge, you know, these are huge numbers. You know, these aren’t, these aren’t like, oh, you know, the hundred thousand here, 100,000 there and Jim, you know, the one thing, the other thing is, okay, so we just talked about you a North American production that we see us in Canada up 700,000 barrels a day. Okay. Yep. With all the hand wringing about the growth and demand being revised, what’s the number they’re going to revise it downward by 200 300. You know, the, the, uh, IHS revise, revise it down by 110,000 barrels a day for next year. Maybe they’ll revise it down another hundred thousand barrels a day. We’re talking about 7,000 barrels
a day here, right. North of New York production. Yeah. Plus all the OPEC and not, you know, eastern in the Russian production. We’ll be walking through the markets in a tail spin. Can we just talk before we leave the US production? Can you talk about, um, is it getting to market, I mean there’s talk about a pipeline constraints, constraints in the Permian area and what’s the situation there now?
Uh, well it’s getting, is it getting to market? Well, it’s getting to where the storage is, that’s for sure. Because it’s going to Cushing Cushing stocks. There’s a new pipeline, uh, the sunrise pipeline that I’m an expansion of the sunrise pipeline from the Permian Basin up into, uh, up into Cushing. And it was supposed to, I think it was 200 a day was what the, what planes the operator was looking for and it’s running at like three 30 to three 50 a day. Um, and that, that is narrowed in the Midland to Cushing differentials. You know, we talked about that a lot this year. Uh, Permian production was stranded and uh, it was like 17 or $18 under the price of Cushing. Um, and that, that differential is narrowed and to, I think right now it’s, it’s only for $54 and 50 cents cheaper. Um, so you know that that’s going to storage and w you know, what’s happened. If you look at the curve, the curve is, has collapsed, you know, the contango is real, it is real and Wti and now in Brent, uh, is really beginning to a, is really beginning to widen out, uh, based on that. Um, you know, based on Cushing building and it has built, built millions of barrels over the last, you know, in the last few weeks.
It’s part of that is we had a really strong turnaround season in the mid, mid continent as well, right?
Oh yeah. Pad To pad two runs with down like a million barrels a day. You know, that big whiting, the, the big widing plan, Chicago when was down and um, you know, BP whiting, so yeah, it was so right. Runs her down and it’ll, it allowed Cushing the buildup as well, as well as the, this, these pipeline barrels going and going in there. So contango is winding out.
So you expect that to, once these refineries come back, these expect it to be more balanced or is it, is it going to have to shoot, should be more balanced spot.
You know, I think this still could be a net Cushing bill. The other thing that I know we’ve talked about Jim in the past few podcasts is that that the EIA with this big production increases that they now have crude. They now have us crude stocks, which are, um, currently at 432 million barrels. They have crude stocks building by April two by April, May next year to 481 million barrels. So they think from now until May, this is going to be like a 50 million barrel built in the u s
that’s simple. She then, yeah, the last podcast we had talked about tightness in the fourth quarter, but uh, bills in the first first half of next year. Right? That’s right. Dia has a really nice chart look, you know, showing their estimates for supplying demand and then they show they stock builds at the bottom. And um, those, like you mentioned that now it’s flipped, it’s build in the fourth quarter and then a bigger building in the first half. So I
mean the first half looks gruesome. It really looks, it doesn’t look good at all. Not only the US, but you know, if you know, I’m assuming that OPEC is going to produce like, um, you know, there are 30, let’s say they’re at 33, so we’re going to lose another half million to 600 from Iran. And maybe you know, the two from uh, Venezuela 200. So you know, let’s say OPEC production, it’s around 30 to five, right? Just ballpark 32 5 million barrels a day. This a number that we talk about it we’ve talked about in these podcasts. Jim called the call on OPEC crude and it’s like a real handy number. You know, I was thinking about it, the call on OPEC crude you take, it’s like the one number that you could use similar to like wins above replacement value or that layer efficiency rating where you tried to get like one number that sort of tells you, you know, it’s the market’s short.
Is it long? You know, I think call it oak tech crew could be that one, that one big barrels above replacement barrels above replacement. What is it going to take, you know, for us to like draw stocks of build stocks. But anyway, it looks like in the first half, you know, using like some of the agencies, some of that, some of the agency numbers, you know, the, the OPEC age at CIA and the CIA, you know, it looks like the first half call is 31 and a half million barrels a day, which means that means anything over that we’re going to build stocks. So if opex at like 30 to five, you know, there could be a million barrels a day surplus. Now, you know, we’re not the only ones looking at at, uh, the, the winds above for call it don’t pick crew,
which is why the Saudis and the Russians are saying, you know, we’re going to have to reduce production. Yeah, you go first. Yeah. You go first. Before we get into that, let’s, can we just back up a little bit and talk about, um, the, uh, the sanctions are our temporary, right, right, right. Slap back on in what, six months or so? There are 180 days, 180 days. So, um, uh, Chinese buying of crude is, has been up recently. And um, can you talk about that as we always try to figure out, is it, is it a demand growth? Are they buying is an anticipatory, uh, purchases? What, what, what’s going on with it?
I think that, I think it is part of both. You know, some of that, a lot of the buying has been by the, um, smaller refiners, the so called teapot refiners who are going to have, um, quotas coming at the, at the beginning of the year. So they’re trying to get, you know, a new new, uh, quotas. And so they’re trying to get it in under the wire. Uh, part of it is in an anticipation of the, uh, you know, the Iranian sanctions, there was a lot of uncertainty is still, or are they going to get a waiver or not, which they, you know, China did get a wave or less than what they had been buying. And part of it is, is demand. You know, I think diesel demand is, is uh, pretty strong in China and the gasoline demands. Okay. So I think, I think it’s a little of both on, uh, on Chinese demand it’s probably a little bit better than what the market thinks, but it’s not actually the IEA, uh, thinks this year it’s going to be pretty strong for Chinese demand. Um, next year not as much.
Yeah. The, um, just to be clear, the IEA comes out with their monthly next Wednesday, November 14th. Um, and that, that gets up a lot of press in the, in the world, in a world. The IEA not so much. I mean it’s, sometimes it just slips by and people, I mean, we look at it, but, um, it goes by an OPEC is sometimes gets, it’s pretty well covered too. That’s Tuesday, November 13th, that comes out, as I mentioned, uh, the u s Doe Energy Information Agency, we call it the BIA came out this past Tuesday. So that’s where a lot of those revisions, um, in, uh, estimates that Andy has already talked about came from. Um, let’s, uh, why don’t we move on to the tale of two products? So unless you, I mean, let’s talk about the tale of two products, gasoline and, and this let’s, I’d say, right? We could look at it,
uh, one, the, uh, the first one is, is gasoline, which looks, we’ve talked about it a lot of this year. How gasoline really didn’t look what didn’t look good. You know, and it’s really a, now globally, it continues to look horrendous, really. Um, you know, refiners, this little d, and the reason is because of diesel, diesel margins globally are really strong, uh, diesel demand globally owing to the, owing to the economy. And, uh, you know, we’ll talk about the shipping change in specs throughout next year. We don’t need to talk about it now, but it will mean that demand for diesel is going to be stronger and 20, 19, and especially in 2020. But diesel demand strong, it’s still pays to run, you know, it’s carrying the whole march and it’s still, it’s still pays to run crude. So demands and pretty good for diesel. And what does it mean you make too much gasoline and gasoline cracks, you know, globally or are soft. I mean, you look at the u s crack, you know, just is actually our Bob to Brant is, is like negative $3. So, um, you know, that’s not coffee sleeve. That’s, that’s not good at, I don’t really see unless, you know, unless the yields continue to go for diesel, you know, unless gasoline has made, you know, it’s, it’s hard to see things clearing up all that much
business. Many years ago it was a grains analyst and if we prices got too low relative to corn, you could start seeing, uh, more wheat used as animal feed. I wonder if there’s something similar in the refinery economics where, uh, I guess, do you get some more sour barrels to yield higher distalance? Is that what you’re saying? Right.
Look, you’re going to do everything. Yeah, that’s what I’m saying. You’re going to do everything you possibly can. Uh, you know, you’ll run anything through your refinery. You possibly can. They get more diesel out of it, but we’re not, we’re not, you know, we’re not say our, because first of all, demand for gasoline is not, you know, it’s, it’s plateaued here, the here in the u s right. Maybe these slower. And unfortunately the consumers have yet to see as has yet to see big relief at the pumps. They’re about to let me pump prices are about to collapse. I’m waiting. Yeah. I think we’re always moving. As soon as this starts moving through the distribute, you know, these price cuts start moving through the distribution of that work. You know, I think you’ll see pump prices really come off hard, uh, over the next, over the next couple of weeks, which, you know, maybe that’ll spur spur demand somewhat. Maybe. Well, I’ll give you
my quick anecdotal evidence. I just did a, uh, somewhat cross country trip from New York to Austin and back and I didn’t take the same route back and forth, but there are a lot of trucks on the road. I mean, it’s just unbelievable how many, and they, listen, I’ve, I’ve, I’ve never done this before, but I can’t, I couldn’t believe how many, you know, that there’s trucks are moving. Um, the other observation is once I got back home to, um, I’d say normally start hitting northern New Jersey. Um, the roads are really crappy teachers. He rose, it’s like driving, you know, driving through a third world or something and then even those roads are better thanks to China, you know, but, uh, it’s, it’s very clear that we just don’t spend money on roads. I mean, I know the weather’s different, but still, anyway, that’s
well trucking. Yeah. I mean, that’s another reason diesel demand this up. Uh, you know, it’s consistently been up, been up over 200,000 barrels a day this year in the u s versus last year. And you know, a lot of that has been trucking and mining and manufacturing and production, those trends, I don’t think they’re going to change. Um, I think this is shore big shortage of truck drivers. You know, that’s a big problem.
Yes. So moving along here, uh, we tend to last a month we were hearing all the bullish reasons why the market was going to go higher. Now we hear all the bearish reasons of why the market is where it is and maybe look, continue to go lower. What’s, um, what, what’s out there? What’s, what’s out there that could be bullish?
Well, there’s still this, this plenty, this, this is oil, right? There’s always something. I’m lobbing this one up there. It, right? And I think we, you know, we know first of all, spare capacity, global spare capacity is really tight. Uh, uh, you know, maybe at most it’s a million and a half barrels a day. So, you know, if something goes wrong, you know, Olivia’s been cranking it out in Nigeria is from cranking it out. Certainly something can go wrong with those, with those producers. Uh, this a, this weekend, uh, OPEC and non OPEC producers are going to meet and obviously there’ll be talking about, uh, production costs. You know, it looks to me like the market’s going to need half a million to 700,000 barrels a day of cuts. You know, we’ll see how if Russia can, can get their producers to, to agree to a cot. You know, they were very reluctant to cut a last that last for the last deal, which is only in 2016 actually it seems like it was, it seems like it was like years ago, right when I read many years ago where they did that, the production cut deal.
So you know, and we do have the, we’ll see what happens with, with Iran and the sanctions and waivers, you know, where, where that, you know, when that leads us and, and certainly what Iran is going to do. You know, what their nuclear program and the Chassis Poa, you know, that that’s certainly out there. So, you know, [inaudible] I think the prospects of a, of a production cut, you know, could, could help to keep the market from completely giving, completely giving way here. And uh, you know, mean maybe we find, find some support depending on the numbers, but I know a lot of traders are going to be watching what the, you know, where the Russians are. I think there was a meeting with the producers and Novak there, a oil minister, I’m not sure they talked about production cuts or at least it wasn’t, you know, it wasn’t reported, but, uh, you know, the, the, uh, those producers were not at all happy with, um, you know, with the last time. So what, we’ll see what happens there and, and uh, yeah. And then Jim, this all talk about Saudis leaving, leaving OPEC, I don’t know if that’s going to be bullish or bearish or non factor, but
yeah, we, I mean we’ve talked about that in the past. If, if, uh, Saudi Aramco goes public, you know, how would you run that company? Would you run it as, you know, a member of OPEC using that? Yeah. That government policy the way it’s always been run or would you want it like a, you know, profit maximizing company, which may lead you to just produce as much as you can as long as it’s profitable. Right, right. And I think the Russians are kind of in that mindset of they look at the u s and the u s is just, Hey, if you can make money, produce right. And I think that’s the way they want to look at it too. So, you know, I’m not optimistic that going forward opening comes up with a, uh, some kind of a new quota. But, um, you know, I’ve been wrong about OPEC policy in the past.
Well, you know, effect. This comes down to basically the Saudis and the Persian Gulf producers and um, you know, cause Nigeria they could come up with a new, you know, I think any, any production regime caught regime has just Saudi this point. Cause UAE, uh, Iraq says really increased production significantly since, uh, since May and Kuwait and the UAE have also increased production. And this is probably more to go from Kuwait and maybe a little bit more to go from UAE and more to go from Iraq for, for 2019. So really needs some big demand to come to come through. And we, and the other Polish factor, obviously the winter is right. So you know, if we get a really frigid winter that that could, that could also help to lend some support to the, to the market. But you know, they’re talking about l and now El Nino winter, which is um, usually warmer than normal in the northeast.
Yeah. You see a natural gas reacting, I guess the, um, the warm late summer, uh, caused a less, a less natural gas to go into storage. And, um, I guess we hit what do they have some cooler weather recently caused it to pop up and yeah, we get a note, we get a cold cold winter, that thing we’ll, ah, we’ll blast again.
Right? Yeah. Natural gas. Well, and then obviously the fundamentals pad ones, at least here, pad one’s really low for diesel, for diesel stocks. So, um, you know, for, for, so, you know, cold winter and where we’re in trouble,
we’re in trouble. So that’s bullish, you know, decent. Is it enough to carry the load that’s didn’t do mace me scene. So, uh, given the sharp move down and that was it 10 days in a row.
Yeah. I mean we’ve friend’s son just had got under 70 and you know, and the, you know, under 60
in a, you know, in the, in the press is talking about a bear market is a 20% decline, which as you know, is one of my pet peeves and drives. If I buy a contract and it goes down after I buy it, to me it’s in a bear market. I don’t need the 20% moves. You know, you start to feel it already. But anyway, um, it’s a big move down. So good. Do you want to venture say over the next, let’s just due to our next podcast, what he, what do you think? Cause it’s, cause the market’s already, I think in our, in our monthly you thought prices might come down some more. It’s already done that, so,
right. I thought, I thought they would come down maybe to the mid sixties did, I mean, if we, but it’s gone now, it’s flown 60. So, you know, I do, I do think OPEC is going to, I do think the Saudis are going to cut production, but maybe modestly, um, you know, it’s not, it’s not going to be enough to, uh, keep the a surplus on the market, but it may be enough to, to, you know, put the brakes on the market. You know, could we make, I think the old Lowe’s like 58, could we, could we test that? Well, we’re, we’re close. You know, we may, we may can do low and then sort of trade sideways, you know, the market is oversold and then you could get, you know, you could get a good rally summit. Maybe the range is something like 57, the 63. I don’t know. Something like that. I, I’m, I’m not, you know, I think that, that, that’s possible.
The, uh, I, I mentioned, uh, I guess it was about a week ago in our, in our blog that I’m like 5,000 of the, um, this, uh, December, 2000 $1,900 calls where we’re sold in the settlement price that they was 26 cents. So, so, um, that’s uh, I don’t know why, I mean, listen it, who knows what the reason maybe they were rolling down, but um, it reduced open interest by a similar amount. So somebody had been, somebody had given up I think as that’s the way I was interpreting it. You never know unless you actually talk to the person that does it, what their motivations are. But um, I think someone has given up on that on those calls. But to I think an options that the main thing is we’ve seen a vile go over 30% and I attract the second year by option that, that money done it since these things start trading.
And um, you know, we were, we were down and we got to get down to the low 19% in the summertime. It’s, I have to go back. I have actually gone down to 17% and that we’re above above 30. And I’m thinking about 30 to 33 is the longterm average. But, um, and the other piece of that is that the tra, uh, uh, vowels tend to be correlated or negatively, negatively correlated with the price. So price comes down to law school. Uh, so that’s, that’s, that’s happening. It’s not happening. That’s not blowing out like, uh, late 2016, I think we got up to 50, 60%. So it’s not crazy, but it is a loose, just shown a bid in there. So we’ll watch that too.
If, you know, I’m thinking, I’m not sure, you know, it’s tough. You’re at a point where you don’t want to really by a falling knife. No, you don’t. You know, we see that this is the oil and we see it moves, you know, it’s just, you know, a couple of years ago went from like, you know, went from a hundred to under 30. Right. So you don’t want to cook. I’m not even, I’m not sure how you would play this, you know, maybe I’ll play it with options.
Yeah. I think if you, if you are bullish here, you probably, if he and you’re afraid to buy it because there’s no little, you look in the chart, there’s no bottom indicated in this and this action you, you’d buy a call spread. It’s limited risk. And um, also if the market does turn around, um, Valls probably go down. So you’re, you know, you’re not totally cushion against that, but a little bit and I think that’s the way you would play that.
I think it’s the way you have to play it. Yeah. Sorry. Hopefully if you’re, if you’re a producer, you know, you, you’ve hedged where you could, you know, I, the mark gave you plenty of time, gave you an opportunity to Andy when we were up around 75 bucks. I mean, people were, yeah, they were looking for a hundred. I, yeah. So a lot of hedges hedges miss this, that
right? Yes. Everything you read, everything you see is bullish. That’s what he said. Like I said, last month we were trying to figure out, well, okay, what’s, what’s, how would he make the marriage case? But it’s always out there. You know, like you said, you made a couple of comments of why this market could go back up. So
anything else you want to add? I’m going to talk about, uh, the Venice, uh, African, uh, rigs are soaring. African rigs are, sorry. Yeah, there’s a, there’s a, they found, uh, you know, and Uganda, they’ve, they’ve, uh, they’re going to start developing, there’s starting developing reserve in the Congo thirst and the Congo off shore stuff. But yeah, the problem with Africa, so like Uganda, it’s taken them 10 years. They found, you know, significant reserves 10 years ago, just now getting it together to, to maybe start drilling, you know, and producing after they’ve built this refinery. So the, or they’re, they’re trying, they want to build a refinery first and then, and then Joel, the reserves. I’m saying it’s, you know, we’ll be talking about that or not talking about that for a, for awhile. But you know, I think it’s, it’s going to be a very, yeah, we still, we still, Jim, next month we’ll start off.
You’ll ask me. There’s been a lot going on. I know. I think we’ve got a lot to, a lot to watch. And um, you know, I just want to wrap, wrap things up with a, um, advertisement for our monthly report, uh, which you know, you get not only the, the soil, not only the energy and natural gas, but Edmier writes an unbelievable a report on the financials and also the metals markets and the global macro Ed. It’s always like ranked number one amongst the metals analysts and the, he does a great job in a concise way. So, um, you can uh, get a hold of us through our website, which is, um, commodity research group.com and you can get ahold of me a Lebow, a l e B o email@example.com. And uh, you know, be happy to send you a copy of our monthly report. You know, free obviously to start. So I, yeah, I think you’d enjoy reading that. Terrific. Okay. This is Jim Colburn, Andy Lebow, commodity research group.com. We’ll see you next month.