Commodity Research Group (CRG) is an independent research consultancy specializing in base and precious metals, as well energy products. The Group provides research and general price analysis for these markets, along with advice to companies seeking to construct hedging strategies.
In this podcast, oil market experts Andrew Lebow and Jim Colburn discuss key fundamental forces driving oil prices in both the futures and options markets.
About Your Hosts
Andrew Lebow has been involved in the energy derivative area since 1980. He began his career with Shearson Lehman Brothers where he worked in the initial formulation and marketing of the NYMEX WTI crude contract in 1983 as well as the NYMEX gasoline contract in 1985.
Mr. Lebow has appeared before the State Government of Alaska as well as the State Department of Defense to discuss hedging techniques. Mr. Lebow is also well known as a market analyst and is quoted frequently in the financial press. He has appeared on television on CNBC, NBC, CNN, CBS, and PBS. Mr. Lebow holds a BA from Lafayette College and an MBA from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University
Jim Colburn is a futures and options professional with 30 years of wide ranging experience in commodity markets. For much of his career, at Man Financial (1989-2011) and Jefferies LLC (2012-2013), Mr. Colburn worked with major integrated oil companies, hedge funds, pension funds and other entities to develop market hedging and trading strategies.
He has conducted trading, hedging and risk management workshops in energy markets worldwide.
Mr. Colburn is a published author on options trading, hedging, market making and risk management. In 1986, while at the New York Mercantile Exchange, Mr. Colburn helped develop new markets in energy option contracts by educating the oil industry, banks, floor traders and brokers, worldwide.
Good morning. This is Jim Colburn of commodity research group. I’m here with Andy Lebow also of commodity research group and we’re here to talk about energy markets along with Ed near Andy and I founded commodity research group which consults on various aspects of commodity markets. Check out our website, commodity research group.com where we post our blog and our podcast. We would like to thank EKT interactive oil and gas training for hosting this podcast as part of their learning network. Ekt Interactive offers effective and affordable e learning for companies and individuals. Sign up for their free oil 101 elearning course or learn more about how they help get you new hires, sales teams and it groups up to speed email@example.com this podcast should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and market conditions and is not intended to refer or endorse any particular trading system. We are not responsible for any trading decisions.
Taken information is not guaranteed to be accurate. This is not an offer to buy or sell any derivative. Andy Lebow, we have a lot to talk about today, so I’m not even gonna say good morning. Let’s take a morning, Joe. Good morning. All right. Good morning. The, uh, EIA is, is a killing us with their, with their data. They really are. Let’s, let’s start about us production data. They, um, it was January 31st they came out with their, um, monthly supply numbers and they updated, uh, November us production to over 10 million barrels. Can you just want to start there and talk about, you know, the weeklies versus the monthlies and, and what does, what does that mean?
Well, let’s start with the low Vember lumbers because they, they, uh, increased what we had, what we had thought on the weeklies by about 350,000 barrels a day upward revision. So all of a sudden, what we thought was November at 9.7 ish or so, uh, you know, you’re up over a Europe over 10 million. And subsequently they made, um, revisions on the short term energy outlook by, uh, you know, another two or 300. And we’ll talk a little bit more about those in detail coming up. Um, so they really made a change for, um, you know, a number of forecasters including this one. Um, so you’re dealing with, but again, the November numbers, we’ve already traded those November barrels, so it’s not, you know, that’s not, it’s not so bad.
And, and they, they made them disappear
and they made them because what they did was while they increased production, uh, they also increased exports. So then they made them disappear. Uh, I think again, we’ve talked about this at other podcasts, they are having problems on, on trying to, um, identify, you know, what, what’s exports, what’s demand, what’s production, more so downstream on the, on the products. But, uh, nevertheless, um, they made some benchmark revisions. Uh, the market seemed to definitely shrug them off, um, because again, they weren’t November numbers, but today, uh, they made a big, they made a big revision, a big weekly increase. Um, you know, we’re going to cry. We’re going along at nine, nine on production. And today’s, uh, Eia weekly lumber has this stuff at 10.2, cause they had to take those, you know, those monthly numbers. So you know, what, what’s, uh, what’s an analyst to do or what’s a trader did though, cause this is now, this is more real time then November, right now we’re looking at 10.2 production number and um, you know, that that’s way more significant than changing than November number,
right? I, so just to clear it up, we get, we get weekly, a weekly, uh, supply, uh, situation numbers, uh, Wednesdays unless there’s a holiday and then some Thursdays. Um, and we get, we get monthly at the end of the month, we get monthly is there re revising these weeklies, um, you know, like soak. So basically January 30, first we got November numbers, right? But that’s the way that works. Right? So, so the November numbers, they go in and do more surveys and those are, the monthly numbers are truer and a then the weekly, but at the market trades off the weeklies,
right. The market trades off the weekly. It’s not, not so much the monthly’s. Right. You know, the monthly, sir, interesting to give you trends that have already happened. This is interesting because now it’s a higher benchmark using the November number 10 and what they’re doing, you know, that what they’ve said in their notes and what they’re doing is they’re now looking at the short term energy outlook and the monthly’s more carefully in some of their weekly data, which is why they, you know, they spit out a 10.2 this week, but meanwhile the market reacted, right. Mark had been react so much to the November ambery
vision, but today, you know, definitely reacted. Yeah. I mean today’s number is also had, there’s a lot of other things. Production obviously was the big eye catching number, but there were other things in there, you know, more gas up three to four disc floats up, three, nine little more bullish than last. I mean Barrett’s, sorry. There is a lot more bearish than last night’s a API numbers. Yeah, definitely allow a lot more bearish on what’s interesting. Um, you know, and now that you have a 10.2
production numbers, so this week, uh, there was a crude runs were, were way up and um,
or some refineries that came back from issues last week, but not that we didn’t think they were going to be up 700 a day and no one thought they were going to be up 700 a day. But a crew runs are about to go down, uh, because of, because of maintenance. Let’s say those crude runs hadn’t gone up that high, then crude stocks would have built very sharply this week. And the point I’m about to make and you know, snow is that, is that crude stocks. Now their production is this high crude stocks during the rest of February and into march are probably going to build a more than what many analysts, including myself, had anticipated. A, which gives a, is definitely bearish, more bearish for the market. Um, give him where production production has gone up this much, uh, because we’re heading into refinery maintenance. So this is a heavy maintenance season. Um,
one of the bigger, before we get into that, I just want to back to the weekly numbers. Would you say that the, I mean it’s the stock numbers themselves are good numbers. Are those like the least likely to be revised? Because here we revise production up by 300,000 and then raised exports by 300,000. But does it ever say, do we ever get like a big revision like that and say, okay, well therefore we need to have more or, or the stock levels are the ones are the elected the blue chip,
I think the stock, the stock levels, so the are the ones are the probably the best, uh, the best data from the weeklies, the weeklies, cause that’s a survey, you know, sometimes they have to back into a, well a lot of times they back into the other numbers based on they’re based on some of their, based on modeling, not so much real data. What were the stock numbers, you know, you have to report, um, w what your inventories are. And similarly, you know, you were poor production is, but they asked their estimates in there. Um, so yeah, the stock numbers is the number that, you know, it’s probably the best one on the,
and then, uh, one of the question on the, on the weeklies before we move into the, uh, you know, the, the Cushing, uh, stock levels, it, there was a 2.2 million drawn pad five. That’s the west coast. Do we care about that anymore? Is that we just, I mean, is that not really, I mean, you know, it used to be ignored,
right? Um, you know, it only means that if you look at Pat’s one through three, you know, you, you ignore that you cancel out the west coast. That would have been a bigger, a bigger bill. The market’s still doesn’t care that much about the west coast. It’s more than it used to, but Nah, I don’t think that’s, you know, I don’t think that’s a big deal.
Okay. So, so now let’s talk about, um, first of all beef again before we leave the production numbers. What does that mean for OPEC and w, you know, they, they’re looking at these numbers to their, their next meeting is in June, right? What are they thinking now would you say? Like not even just OPEC but also Russia?
Well, they, they, you know, they knew these numbers are going up. The Eia increased, um, their estimate of us production by another 300,000. Last week it was 1 million I think. And this week they went up to 1.3 growth and uh, and us production and Canadian production is going up. Uh, Brazil is probably going up. And in fact, Jim, I think you pointed out what was that non OPEC, not, you know, a non OPEC production was off, what was it, over 2 million barrels a day.
They have 2.35 and not include them and I clues liquids as well, other liquids. So yeah, that’s a huge number.
Yeah, that’s a big number. So you know, as these numbers, uh, begin to a really, really increased, particularly the u s number if, if it’s accurate, of course. Um, you know, the, this is going to be, um, yeah, there’s got to be, um, some internal squabbling amongst the OPEC or the non OPEC and particularly, particularly Russia. Now, Saudi may argue, I’m probably will argue that, hey, you know what, so far this has worked because you know, you look at Saudi and they’re making an extra $100 million a day based on, uh, you know, since the agreement. Um, but nevertheless, you know, some of the other, all the producers have to be concerned about losing market share and, um, you know, and, and um, this is July meeting is going to, I think a lot of the focus is how do they exit, you know, out of this production that is production meeting. They’re kind of out of the production deal. I’m sorry.
It’s kind of like the Fed if it fence trying to get out of this quantitative easing. Um, so let’s go back to Cushing and can you talk about what you see going forward? Um, because with there’s been pipeline issues and refinery runs or, uh, expected to go down. So what do you see happening? Um, I mean, cushy has been draining tremendously. So let’s, let’s talk about that, that
for a few minutes. Yeah. Cushing has been draining. Um, on the Vember third Cushing inventories for 65 million. And, uh, today the UIA reported them at 36 point. So they’re there, you know, the, the, the down by 30 million barrels almost halved. And there were a lot of factors to that. Uh, one, the keystone pipeline from Canada continues to have, have some, some issues, uh, that there, I’m not at 100%, uh, yet. Um, and that’s caused west West Canada crude to really collapse wcs training like 30, 30 on there. One of the factors there. Uh, but that’s, uh, that’s in the side. So, um, barrels into Cushing have been, um, because because of Canada as well as the base and pipeline going down, that’s, that’s a significant pipeline from, um, west Texas into, into Cushing. That went down for a few days. So less supply and to Cushing. And this new diamond pipeline, uh, is bringing barrels out of Cushing into, um, uh, Tennessee I think. Um, so there, there’s definitely more exit barrels or egg and so less supply, more demand plus because of the brand tis being so why, um, you know, paid paid to ship itself.
Yeah. Those West Texas, uh, producers, some of them have a choice of sending it to Cushing or to the Gulf coast.
Right, right, right. And if you look at the, you look at the differentials for the Gulf coast, you know, like ll, we’ll just use LLS or even that m h um, you know, I was at a, at a nice premium to a nice premium to Cushing. Um, so, you know, the incentive there was the co was to ship and as a result, you know, cushy drain, uh, and runs into in December, you know, had the Brunch we were out of control in December. So, you know, yet high crude rods basically, you know, less supply, high demand, yet a good drain. What’s, what’s going to happen going forward? Well, it’s pretty, it’s pretty clear what’s going to happen going forward that the Canadian pipeline is gone. It goes, that will be, uh, ultimately, uh, resolved already. We’re seeing the differentials to Cushing, uh, lower like LLS, just using that as an example is only like two, you know, $2 over to 50 over, um, you know, it was $6 over at, at one point and we’re going into maintenance. So what’s going to happen cause she’s going to build, you know, from here on out, I think the next few months we’re going to see pretty good bill a cushion.
Interesting you say that because, um, last week we saw a huge uh, uh, position in the spread option market where somebody bought a 10,000 April, may thousand, May, June and 10,000 June, July flat puts, um, the settlement was around 2 cents I think. But basically what they’re, what they’re buying there is they’re expecting the market to go into a contango and it’s obviously it’s a, it’s a, that’s a lottery ticket type of trade. But it, you know, it makes me, it makes more sense when you just talked about how everything that caused this, uh, area to drain is now going to reverse and, and we may see some significant bills. I don’t know. I don’t know if it’s enough to take us down, um, into back into contango, but, um, somebody placing a little bit of putting a little money down to just say that it might.
Um, yeah, and I forgot to add the biggest factors that US production is continuing to grow. That’s a big factor. Um, but yeah, I, I you look at that, look at that bet somebody made or a hedge that, uh, somebody rate, I’m not sure I buy that, but, you know, one, one, one of our, um, there was one trader who had a view that maybe it was the funds or buying protection, um, against the role going from backwardated to a contango and, um, you know, certainly, yeah. Which is possible.
Yeah. I, I, you know, it’s, um, I’d be surprised as I was a reason. I really think it’s just somebody’s, uh, taking, you know, punk and some cash down and look at, I mean, a lot of things have to happen for, for, uh, to, to come to play and, you know, you really don’t need it to get all the way there. He just needed to, you know, you maybe it’s a five to one or 10 to one play. It’s, it’s, it’s a, it’s a teeny, teeny option. And the other pieces that if we do get in a little, uh, you know, the markets selling off, there’s so much length that’s speckled IV at tends to be in a front end. So if they start to liquidate and, and you know, maybe even turn around and get short that they also crushed the spread a little bit.
But, um, we’ll see. We’ll see how that plays out. The other interesting thing Andy, now that we brought up my world of options, the um, the biggest open interest is the march 57 put with about 42,000. That came in chunks too. I think it was maybe one, you know, maybe the hedge fund type type play. But you know, you normally don’t see, you see the big open interest on the 60s, the 60 fives. This is the 57 put. And um, I think it’s settled around seventh sense souls. We’ll see. That’s another one that the problem with these things is it goes off, um, on the 14th of Fab. And a lot of these options that are out of the money, they’re given up for dead. And so the people that are on the short side may not have a hedge on for them. And then when the market comes down, like it’s like it’s done, uh, recently, maybe, maybe another leg down, it gets close and they, and they rush to cover, which we call it a gambler rush and the gamma rush.
Yeah. And it causes all these problems. You know, I’m just, I’m just putting it out there. There’s another, uh, t play. Maybe it’s the same guy. I don’t know what are the same woman, I don’t know, but it’s up. It’s out there. You know, the, the beauty about options, as you can tell what people are thinking about, you know, the price that’s away from the today’s traded price. So here’s somebody plunked down, you know, a bunch of, uh, positions that the market might trade down to 57, but you always have to remember there’s somebody stepping up to sell it as well. That’s, that’s the, you know, Brian was saying, no, no, we’re not going to get that far. And probability wise, we’re still far away. We’re still $5 and change away from that number one of some of the analysis I’ve been reading lately, um, has to do with, with, uh, funds flow.
Uh, this notion that the funds coming in to the front or second month is the causal, um, it’s causing the backwardation uh, uh, you know, that has forced the market into backwardation. What do you think about that? Well, you know, Andy, I think it may exacerbate it, but in the end it’s the fundamentals that drive it. I mean, we’ve, like you just mentioned, we’ve seen a huge draw in stock levels. You know, if we don’t see that draw, we don’t see the, the, the backwardation takeaways, but it’s a huge amount of volumes. So you can’t say it doesn’t have any effect. And they do tend to trade in the first active month and they roll. So, but it’s, uh, I, I would have to say based on what we’ve looked at over the years, it’s, it seems to be the fundamentals driving. So now that we’re in backwardation the incentives to store oil are not there, but it’s kind of like cause and effect that it’s, it’s, uh, simultaneously you get a draw in, in Cushing, you get a market that moves towards backwardation gets into backwardation and the incentives to store or less.
So, you know, I think as far as that goes, it’s a little overdone. Yeah. I was surprised to read one report that that was the leading cause. I was like, what are they talking about? Yeah. Look what happened. The Cushing, you know, that’s the leading cause writes to you, you need physical, let me cook. We focused on Cushing obviously, cause that’s, that’s where the futures contract is. And there’s, there is a lot of financial, uh, uh, money involved, but it’s, um, you know, when, when you get down to the, to, to the, uh, the fundamental, I think it’s still fundamentally driven. I’m not saying it doesn’t have any effect, I’m just saying overall it has to, uh, you’d have to see, because you can, you can buy, people were making plays for backwardation, you know, and it, it wasn’t happening. So there, you know, the usual suspect money coming in and it didn’t happen for a while.
And then finally, it’s, uh, it’s, it’s, it’s working in, you know, look at the demand strong too. I mean, you know, we, we could get, we could talk about that. Why don’t we get into that right now. Um, the EIA as a expected growth of 1.7 and 2018 they have 1.6 for two thousand seventeen million barrels. This is world world growth and 1.7 2018 1.7 2019. Um, and they point out that the IMF, uh, bumped up their world GDP growth to plus 3.9% for both year 2018 and 19. So, um, I think the IEA is around what, one, one, four, one three, one three. So yeah,
that’s a big difference. I know they can diverge, but that seems like a lot, you know, I think the answer is it’s probably somewhere in the middle, which is where we set our last podcast. We 1.4 or five this year. Right. Um, you know, the IEA made some, made some good points though, you know, they were concerned about what the price of fact with the higher price effect was going to be on demand. So I think that’s one of the reasons why they marked down a demand and they were all, so, uh, we’re noting that there was some substitution going on between natural gas and fuel oil, uh, in some of the emerging markets. And that this was also having a, you know, an effect on demand, which is why they had marked it down to one, three, I think. I think they’re a little bit low, but you know, we’ll see.
The GDP numbers had been coming in. Uh, obviously they’re coming in pretty strong. The IMF number has been, has been strong. Someone would think that demand is still going to be a relatively robust, uh, this year. We’ve already had a pretty cold winter and the in North America, so that didn’t the north, um, more than hemisphere, so that that should help, um, and go, going forward. Um, you know, I, it, it still looks, despite what’s going on in the equity markets, you know, it’s still looks like the fundamentals, uh, for global growth. There are at least this year are still pretty strong.
Well, you know, it, you know, I follow the, uh, the feds now cast, they have one in Atlanta that was a, it was looking at Q one GDP in the u s at over 5% and they have a sense. So each time a data point comes out, they re visor model and there’s supposedly a no judgment and all is pure, pure data driven. And uh, they dropped it down to 4%. And um, you know, five point something percent was, yeah, it’s great. Crazy. I so, uh, yeah, but you know, I agree with you. I think the, the growth is not going away. I just, I just think, you know, the, the, the bullishness in this market was getting overdone. The funds are getting really long. And, um, they were temporary things in there with the, uh, especially with the pipelines that were, uh, you know, goose ended up even that a little bit more.
So maybe we’re just coming retracing a, now that things are going, I hate to use the word normal, but back to the pipelines coming back, Cushing filling up and maybe we’ll get back to a more normal situation. Um, speaking of normal, a volatility in this move down is picked up. Nope, not that much. It’s a settled yesterday in front month of 25.6. Uh, the longterm average is 33. It’s probably up a little bit more today. Um, April’s 20 to eight. So again, it’s a, it’s even though if this market keeps going down and accelerates, it obviously pick up, but it just hasn’t reacted like, say the, uh, the Vicks boy Andy, I used to talk, I used to talk to the traders on the floor, the option guys, and they say, you know, they had a saying, you, you sell a weenie and you meaning a t as small option sell vol and you’re, you’re, uh, you know, it’s like picking up quarters in front of the steamroller. It’s like, you know, walking through a minefield, all those sayings and boy, they do come to pass. So you make money for a year and then you’ll give it back and some in two days or less or less. Yeah. It’s that kind of thing. A couple of things I want to touch base on Venezuela, what do you want to tell me about Venezuela?
Well, their production is down to 30 year lows. At a 1.6 Maduro has brought in one of the generals to run PEDEVESA, um, to try to stabilize and increased production. But again, I don’t, you know, maybe he’ll be able to, maybe there’ll be able to stabilize it, but I just don’t see how that’s how that’s going to be possible with some of their workers just leaving their jobs, uh, if not trying to leave the, uh, leave the country. Uh, they did explore it a little more to the u s in January than, uh, than December. But, um, again, it’s hard to see how a crude production is going to, uh, increase. Um, you know, I think there’s still going to decline this year. Um, you know, maybe maybe down to one, four, five, one, one five, a number, maybe even lower than that. Um, you know, their, their refinery there, refinery complex at, um, their refinery complex is, is the running maybe 20 or 30%.
Uh, so, you know, obviously they’re major issues there. Right, right. And, um, let’s, let’s quickly talk about prices going forward. Um, what’s, what are you working with? What are you looking at for, for crude oil? I think the ETF for Wti, uh, you know, we are going through a period here where stocks are going to build, you know, particularly with these, um, you know, production is, is truly at 10.2. Um, currently, um, crude stocks are 40 420 million barrels. Uh, I think they’re going to build the Cushing. I think they’re going to build up to, you know, the, the Eia just said in March up to four 52 our numbers are right there. Actually four 50. We just, I just redid them a four 54 and a April like four 55 which is higher than I had previously had that, that’s a little bearish. You know, I think this is going to be, when we keep getting these weekly numbers, uh, you know, these bills, I think that’s going to be bearish.
I mean, those numbers they’re getting up to the four fifties is not, you know, that’s right around five year average or a little bit higher than five year average numbers and not bad. But psychologically, you know, the market may have trouble, um, sustaining, you know, be a big move. Um, having said that, however, you know, as we move into second and in particularly to third quarter, um, you know, seasonally that things should improve, will be coming out of turnarounds and um, you know, that, that, that the market will start looking ahead. Um, so I, I think we can get under 60, uh, we’re not that far now. Actually. I think we get under 60, 57 we’ll have to have a big liquidating move right on the 57 58, 58 and a half on the, on the lows. Um, I’m trying to remember last year when we made the low, was that in June?
Yeah, July that we got down to 45 then we ground higher after that. Right. You know, anything about, um, cracks or crack these old, they’ve been on the big pressure and see diesel and gasoline come off. Um, you know, which may be in tune with some of the industrial commodity sort of coming that are coming off copper get whacked today. Right? So some of these industrial commodities are, are, uh, are coming off a cracks had been under a lot of pressure. Um, you know, as, as we get into, as we start moving into turnarounds, um, they’ll stabilize in the and they should, they should rally up. Um, and I think for the year, you know, looking ahead for the year, uh, margin should be, I think they’re going to be pretty good. Uh, assuming that, um, you know, demand stays around the ones, you know, around the one five number, um, you know, demand is going to grow one five, where is the one near that much? The refinery capacity, uh, which means that we’re going to have to, um, run refineries at higher levels and, you know, take some from inventory. So, um, you know, I think margin should be, it should be okay. This year should be good.
And I think we’re, we’re good. Uh, anything else you want to talk about? What going forward, what’s the next piece of information you want to see? Is it stocks and Cushing? Another production weekly production number?
Yeah. Let’s see what they do with this production number going, you know, going forward into, uh, into February. And then obviously another big number is, you know, this market needs to liquidate this so much length. We’ve been saying it, every podcast that came,
believe how long this market is, it looks like its shape. It may have, uh, we, we get the numbers on Friday and they’re as of Tuesday. So this, this week’s numbers won’t have today’s action in them. Right. There’s the CFTC numbers. It’s Tuesday, Tuesday nights, a close I guess. So it’s, there are so delayed. I, I’ve always had a problem with how they define, you know, like, like, uh, they used to pull out the long only strategies. Um, and I don’t know where I get, I guess they put them in manage specs or they’re managing money. I don’t, I don’t understand, you know, some, some of the definitions, they’re much better than they used to be. So like I kind of look at those numbers with, with one on, I say, okay, because there’s already been, you know, three days, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, three days of price action, um, numbers of three days late basically. So what I’m saying then you only have that you can’t do anything until Monday. So it’s almost like four days. That’s my own concern. But anyway, um,
so yeah, that’s something we’ll look at the weekly, the, you know, we’ll see what the SPEC thing is. Um, and we’ll watch the curves. You know, I think the curves, it looks to me like they’re going to start softening, at least, at least here it’s interesting and more sea, uh, forties which was set a pretty big premium because the private pipeline is because of the pipeline issue, you know, that that began to soften. Uh, and then Asia would be able to get in this season. You know, that that curve softened too. But again, that’s sort of seasonal, you know, it is, it’s turnaround time, right? Right. Some of that’s built in, right? Yeah. So I’ll be looking at these options, the march 57 point, I want to see if that comes into play. Go. Like I said before, it goes off the 14th of February and I want to look at the spread options and I would be shocked to see us go into contango this year. But you know, we’ve been shocked before, but he’s markets. Yeah, I don’t, it would be, I could see it weakening. Contango would be, yeah, I don’t see that. Right. Yeah. Yeah. I just don’t see that right now. Okay. This is Jim Colburn. I’m with Andy Lebow and talking about energy markets. Uh, check us firstname.lastname@example.org and if you want to email, uh, either myself or Jim, mine is a email@example.com. That’s a l e B o w a commodity research group.com. And Jim’s is j Cole Burn, c o l e B U R firstname.lastname@example.org. Right. See you guys next month.